Thursday, August 28, 2008

Most Unearned Runs In a Game

If you've ever scrolled to the bottom of my blog you may have noticed a small Site Meter logo. Clicking on it takes you to the site summary for Recondite Baseball, and from there you can see the number of visits here every day. Another cool page there lists the referring URL for people who make it to my site. Most of the time it's Google searches directing people here but occasionally it's a new link from another website. Every once in a while, one of those Google searches or links brings up something interesting.

Last night, someone visited from a forum where a question was posted about the most unearned runs given up by a team in one game. I didn't have the answer on the site, but last September, I posted about the most unearned runs charged to individual pitchers and that entry was linked to in the forum. Of course, once I saw that, I wanted to know what the answer actually was.

I'm sure unearned runs were far more common in the late 19th century and early 20th century, when errors occurred much more frequently. In fact, looking at the career numbers of some pitchers from then confirms this. Nearly one-third of the runs allowed by Christy Mathewson were unearned. One-quarter of the runs Walter Johnson allowed were unearned. Cy Young gave up over 1000 unearned runs in his career.

When so many runs were unearned, it's likely at least some blowout games saw a lot of unearned runs. I would also think unearned runs weren't very notable. Sure, fans might harp on a team's defense (or lack thereof), but giving up, say, five unearned runs in a game probably wouldn't have the same surprise factor as it would today. With that in mind, perhaps it's good that the following list covers 1956-2008, where a lot of errors in a game is pretty glaring.

Most Unearned Runs Allowed In a Game By One Team, 1956-2008

TeamOpponentDateRuns
TotalEarnedUnearned
Houston AstrosNew York Mets7/27/198516016
Houston AstrosChicago Cubs5/31/197316313
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals9/12/197616313
Texas RangersCalifornia Angels9/14/197816313
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles6/5/198916313
Toronto Blue JaysBalitmore Orioles9/28/2000231013
New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers8/26/196216412
Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants9/3/196316511
Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers6/30/199216511
Boston Red SoxCleveland Indians7/14/195717710
Chicago CubsMontreal Expos6/25/197512210
San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals4/26/197615510
California AngelsChicago White Sox5/31/197817710
Oakland AthleticsMinnesota Twins4/27/1980201010
Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates5/3/198516610
Oakland AthleticsCleveland Indians6/7/198712210
Oakland AthleticsChicago White Sox10/3/198717710
Minnesota TwinsNew York Yankees7/22/199010010
Houston AstrosSan Diego Padres4/7/199617710
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays5/5/199611110
Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers10/7/200115510
Los Angeles AngelsNew York Yankees8/3/200814410

Hm, I guess sixteen runs allowed is the magic number for a lot of them to be unearned. I didn't realize the Angels gave up ten unearned runs only a couple weeks ago. I guess you learn something new every day.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Highest Game Score in a Loss

Yesterday I posted about the lowest game scores for a winning pitcher. For a refresher on what a game score is and how it's figured, click here to see the post.

Today I want to look at the opposite of yesterdday's post: the highest game scores by a losing pitcher. Since game scores reward pitchers who throw a lot of innings in a game, I'm going to split it into nine-inning games and extra-inning games in order to avoid a bunch of ten and eleven inning outings on the list before getting to any regular-length games. Since it's rare for a pitcher these days to go past nine innings, having two different leaderboards should help get some more recent games on the list.

I decided to forgo making a table in favor of a simpler list. I don't have the pitcher's team or opponent, but that information can be found by clicking on the date of each pitcher's start.

Highest Game Score by a Losing Pitcher, 1956-2008
(Games with ten or more innings)
  • Harvey Haddix - 107 - 5/26/1959 - 12.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

  • Jim Maloney - 106 - 6/14/1965 - 11.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 K

  • Juan Marichal - 104 - 8/19/1969 - 13.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

  • Nolan Ryan - 99 - 8/20/1974 - 11.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 19 K

  • Dick Drago - 98 - 5/24/1972 - 12.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

  • Warren Spahn - 97 - 7/2/1963 - 15.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
    Pedro Ramos - 97 - 8/23/1963 - 13.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 14 K
    Bill Singer - 97 - 8/3/1973 - 11.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 R, 1 BB, 13 K

  • Al Jackson - 96 - 8/14/1962 - 15.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K
    Steve McCatty - 96 - 8/10/1980 - 14.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K

  • Sandy Koufax - 93 - 5/28/1960 - 13.0 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 9 BB, 15 K

  • Bob Rush - 92 - 8/23/1957 - 15.1 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
    Camilo Pascual - 92 - 6/5/1958 - 13.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

  • Chuck Dobson - 91 - 5/21/1968 - 11.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
    Sam McDowell - 91 - 6/13/1968 - 11.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 14 K
    Ed Halicki - 91 - 5/26/1975 - 10.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Those games show how starters have been reigned in over the years. Only five of those sixteen games took place after 1970 and the last one was in 1980. Given that only five pitchers in the past decade have reached ten innings in a game (and a starter going past nine innings has happened 50 times since 1990), these days it's impossible to think of a starter going 12 or more innings.

There are a couple notable games in the above collection. Harvey Haddix's outing on top of the list was a perfect game for twelve innings. In the bottom of the thirteenth, Felix Mantilla reached on an error, Eddie Mathews bunted him to second, Hank Aaron was intentionally walked, and Joe Adcock hit a double to center field to end the game. Warren Spahn's start on July 2, 1963, was his famous sixteen-inning duel with Juan Marichal (who got a game score of 112). Two strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings is nuts.

Highest Game Score by a Losing Pitcher, 1956-2008
(Games with nine innings or less)
  • Ken Johnson - 92 - 4/23/1964 - 9.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

  • Kevin Appier - 91 - 7/27/1993 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

  • Bob Sebra - 90 - 7/1/1987 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 14 K

  • Sam McDowell - 89 - 7/6/1968 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 14 K

  • Fernando Valenzuela - 88 - 4/28/1985 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

  • Rudy May - 87 - 69/1973 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
    Floyd Youmans - 87 - 9/27/1986 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 7 BB, 15 K
    Pedro Martinez - 87 - 5/6/2000 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K

  • Jim Bouton - 86 - 9/16/1966 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
    Andy Hassler - 86 - 9/8/1974 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
    Bill Singer - 86 - 5/31/1975 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
    Pete Smith - 86 - 4/15/1989 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

  • Jim Nash - 85 - 7/23/1967 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 12 K
    Bill Singer - 85 - 6/12/1969 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 K
    Vida Blue - 85 - 8/24/1971 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
    Fred Norman - 85 - 5/7/1974 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K
    Randy Johnson - 85 - 6/25/1999 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 K
    Jon Lieber - 85 - 5/29/2000 - 8.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Jon Lieber and Pete Smith are the only guys on that list who didn't go nine innings in their starts. In Smith's case, it was because the game was over when his team didn't score in the top of the ninth. Lieber was pulled after throwing 116 pitches over his eight innings.

Bill Singer was pretty unlucky. He appeared once on the extra-innings list and twice on the regular game list. Of course, he managed to win 20 games in 1969 and 1973, two of the years he appeared on these lists, so I guess he wasn't hurt too badly.

Since the most recent game in the lists above took place in 2000, I looked up the highest game score by a losing pitcher during the 2008 season. On July 20, Scott Baker of the Twins gave up one run on two hits over eight innings. He walked one and struck out eight for a game score of 81.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Lowest Game Scores in a Win

A pitcher's Game Score is a quick and dirty way of examining his effectiveness during a particular start. Originally created by Bill James, it's found through this formula:
  1. Start with 50 points.
  2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning).
  3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
  4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
  5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
  6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
  7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
  8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
It's available plenty of places, but I took that from ESPN.com's MLB Best Games page which contains a handy-dandy list of the best game scores of the season. Ricky Nolasco's nine-inning, eleven-strikeout shutout of the Giants last Tuesday gave him the highest game score by an NL pitcher in 2008 - neat.

Anyway, game score is a neat little tool because it rewards starters who go deep into a game while striking out a lot of enemy batters and preventing opposing baserunners and runs. That's pretty common sensical-like. For more basic trivia about game scores, check out the Game Score Wikipedia article.

The reason I bring up game scores ultimately has to do with abysmal pitching. I'm sure most baseball fans can think of an awful outing by a starting pitcher who managed to come away with a win. As luck would have it, Matt Harrison of the Rangers had such a win earlier this month. On August 10, he gave up six runs on ten hits and two walks in five innings and was the winning pitcher in a 15-7 slugfest. While other pitchers have given up more runs in a start and come away with a win (Russ Ortiz, for one), you get the idea.

I want to look at the lowest game scores by a winning starting pitcher since 1956. Matt Harrison's win two weeks ago came with a game score of 21 and Russ Ortiz's bad day I linked to had a game score of 22 thanks to his seven strikeouts. There have been even lower game scores coupled with pitching wins. They were achieved, obviously, by pitchers who didn't strike out many batters while scattering hits and walks around the yard en route to a bunch of runs scored against them. Below is the list of the twenty-seven games since 1956 in which a starting pitcher with a game score of 19 or lower was the winning pitcher. The dates listed link to the box score of the game.

Lowest Game Scores by a Winning Pitcher, 1956-2008

NameDateTmOpp.Final
Score
Game
Score
Pitching Line
Ike Delock6/14/1956BOSCLE10-9195.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
Rick Waits8/4/1979CLETEX12-8195.1 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Rick Aguilera8/8/1985NYMMON14-7195.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Jimmy Jones7/30/1987SDPCIN12-8195.0 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Mike Mussina7/1/1994BALCAL14-7195.0 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Bobby Witt4/25/1998TEXKCR11-8195.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Brian Bohanon6/15/1999COLSFG15-6195.0 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
Chris Peters8/30/1999PITCOL11-8195.0 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Ken Holtzman5/28/1969CHCSFG9-8185.0 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
Charles Hudson6/11/1985PHINYM26-7185.0 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Steve Woodard5/11/2000MILCHC14-8185.0 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Jake Westbrook7/31/2005CLESEA9-7185.2 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Bob Rush5/12/1956CHCSTL14-10175.1 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Don Sutton5/5/1976LADCHC14-12175.2 IP, 14 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Todd Stottlemyre4/23/1992TORCLE13-8176.2 IP, 13 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Sid Roberson6/30/1995MILNYY12-6175.0 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
Shawn Estes7/6/1999SFGSDP10-9175.0 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Bill Campbell8/3/1975MINCHW12-9165.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 6 BB, 3 K
Kirk Rueter6/12/1999SFGSEA15-11165.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Casey Daigle5/10/2004ARINYM12-8155.0 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Jaret Wright4/18/2005NYYTBD19-8155.1 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Jae Seo5/24/2007TBDSEA13-12155.0 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Don Sutton5/31/1979LADSFG12-10146.2 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Jon Garland4/13/2006CHWDET13-9145.0 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Andy Pettitte9/29/2007NYYBAL11-10145.0 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
Dan Haren8/21/2006OAKTOR12-10135.2 IP, 11 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Woody Williams4/7/2001SDPCOL14-10125.0 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

As you can see, the difference between Woody Williams' start and many of the ones above it is negligible - a hit, walk, or strikeout here or there accounts for the difference in game scores and if you've given up nine runs in five innings, who really cares how you did it, right? The same can be said for most of the games listed here. That said, there's something special about having a unique combination of innings, hits, walks, strikeouts, and runs allowed among all winning pitchers in the past 52 years. I'm sure Woody Williams was glad to forget April 7, 2001, but he still got the win and (retroactively) a very dubious distinction for his trouble.

I also found the number of good pitchers on the list interesting. Hall of Famer Don Sutton shows up twice while more recent 200-game winners Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte also appear. It might not mean as much anymore, but besides those three, nine more pitchers on the list were named to the All-Star team at least once. I guess it just goes to show you that any pitcher can have a bad day...and any pitcher can have his team's bats let him off the hook.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Other 20/20 Club

When you hear about the 20/20 club in baseball, it generally refers to players with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases in the same season. With less than a quarter of the season to go, talk about players who might be in the club by the end of the season starts becoming more and more prevalent. Since 2000, each season has seen between 4 (in 2003) and 15 (in 2001) members of the 20/20 club each year. Last season, fourteen players had 20+ HR and 20+ SB.

So far this season, Brandon Phillips (20 HR/22 SB), Hanley Ramirez (27/28), and Grady Sizemore (28/30) are already past the 20/20 mark. Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Ian Kinsler, and Alex Rodriguez are above fifteen in each category this year, so it's likely at least some more players will make it in the final six weeks of the year.

Now that the usual one is out of the way, I want to talk about another type of 20/20 club. I think of it as a kind of reverse 20/20 club, in a way. I'm talking about players with 20+ GIDP and 20+ errors in the same season. Grounding into a double play is kind of an anti-home run because not only are you costing the team yourself as a potential run-scorer, you are also taking away another potential run-scorer who was already on the bases. Similarly, an error is kind of like an anti-stolen base because rather than giving your team an extra base, you've given your opponent one.

Unfortunately, it's not possible to find all members of the other 20/20 club throughout baseball history. Errors have been recorded way back past 1901, but GIDP have only been recorded in the National League since 1933 and in the American League since 1939. Regardless, there has been a steadily growing membership (76 different players with 101 seasons through 2007) in the group. In the 75 seasons between 1933-2007, a full 25 had no new members of the GIDP & E club, 22 had one member join, 17 had two, 7 had three, 3 had four, and two seasons had six different players reach the 20/20 marks.

Getting to twenty GIDP in a year isn't easy, but it's also not really position-specific. Granted, a speedy, centerfielder type will be harder to double up, but most players with 500-600 plate appearances can potentially reach 20 GIDP. It's in the errors category that a lot of guys are weeded out. To reach twenty errors, you pretty much have to be an infielder. No regular outfielders are in the group, and only one regular catcher and two regular first basemen are in my 20/20 club. Some players may have had an error committed in the outfield or at first base help them reach 20 errors, but most of the time they played second, short, or third. This really isn't a surprise, since those positions get the most chances to make both fielding and throwing errors.

So who are the members of the dubious 20/20 club? I've listed them below alphabetically, with the season(s) they got into the club, as well as their team, the positions at which they committed errors (in order of errors made), and their GIDP and error totals.

20+ GIDP & 20+ E in the Same Season, 1933-2007

NameYearTeamPosition(s)
GIDPE
Dick Allen1971LAD3B/LF/1B2321
Luis Aparicio1949CHWSS2326
Tony Batista2003BAL3B2020
Buddy Bell1984
1985
TEX
TEX/CIN
3B
3B
21
24
20
25
David Bell2005PHI3B2421
Jimmy Bloodworth1943DET2B2921
Lou Boudreau1940CLESS2324
Ken Boyer1963
1964
STL
STL
3B
3B
20
22
34
24
Ed Brinkman1973DETSS2224
Hubie Brooks1985MONSS2028
Rick Burleson1980BOSSS2422
Ed Busch1944PHASS/2B2041
Jorge Cantu2005TBD2B/3B2421
Vinny Castilla1996COL3B2020
Ed Charles1963KCA3B2125
Dick Cole1954PITSS/3B/2B2028
Dave Concepcion1974
1985
CIN
CIN
SS
SS
20
23
30
24
Joe Cronin1941BOSSS/3B2027
Babe Dahlgren1944PIT1B2020
Sam Dente1950WSHSS/2B2534
Bob Dillinger1950PHA/PIT3B2020
Chico Fernandez1957PHISS2126
Julio Franco1983
1984
1985
CLE
CLE
CLE
SS
SS
SS
21
23
26
28
36
35
Nomar Garciaparra1998BOSSS2025
Mike Goliat1950PHI2B2021
Joe Gordon1942NYY2B2228
Dick Groat1955
1958
1959
1961
1966
PIT
PIT
PIT
PIT
PHI
SS
SS
SS
SS
SS/3B
20
21
21
22
20
32
20
29
32
20
Granny Hamner1949
1951
1957
PHI
PHI
PHI
SS
SS
2B
20
20
23
32
31
21
Ron Hansen1965CHWSS2126
Jim Ray Hart
1966
SFG
3B/LF
23
26
Charlie Hayes1993COL3B2520
Billy Herman1933
1939
CHC
CHC
2B
2B
21
24
45
29
Pinky Higgins1941
1942
DET
DET
3B
3B
20
21
26
30
Billy Hitchcock1950PHA2B/SS3022
Butch Hobson1979BOS3B2325
Johnny Hudson1938BRO2B2027
Randy Jackson1951
1953
CHC
CHC
3B
3B
21
20
24
22
Gregg Jefferies1992KCR3B2426
Billy Johnson1948NYY3B2220
Willie Jones1949PHI3B2027
Billy Jurges1938
1939
CHC
NYG
SS
SS
22
26
34
28
George Kell1944PHA3B2820
Buddy Kerr1950BSNSS2128
Harmon Killebrew1970MIN3B/1B2820
Don Kolloway1947CHW2B/3B/1B2227
Hal Lanier1970SFGSS2022
Sam Leslie1933NYG/BRO1B2021
Johnny Lipon1950DETSS2033
Hector Lopez1958KCA2B/3B2321
Frank Malzone1958
1960
BOS
BOS
3B
3B
21
20
27
26
Bill Mazeroski1964PIT2B2123
Bill Melton1973CHW3B2023
Cass Michaels1949CHW2B2022
Willie Montanez1976SFG/ATL1B2622
Jo-Jo Morrissey1933CIN2B/SS/3B2140
Thurman Munson1975NYYC2323
Marty Perez1972ATLSS2127
Tony Perez1969CIN3B2032
Aramis Ramirez2003PIT/CHC3B2133
Rafael Ramirez1985ATLSS2132
Pee Wee Reese
1954
1955
BRO
BRO
SS
SS
20
22
25
23
Cal Ripken, Jr.1983
1985
BAL
BAL
SS
SS
24
32
25
26
Alex Rodriguez2006NYY3B2224
Bill Russell1977
1979
LAD
LAD
SS
SS
23
20
29
30
Ron Santo1961
1969
1973
CHC
CHC
CHC
3B
3B
3B
25
21
27
31
27
20
George Scott1977BOS1B2424
Vern Stephens1948BOSSS2524
Dick Stuart1961
1963
PIT
BOS
1B
1B
22
24
21
29
Pete Suder1941
1942
PHA
PHA
3B/SS
SS/3B/2B
23
20
21
22
Miguel Tejada2004
2005
BAL
BAL
SS
SS
24
26
24
22
Felix Torres1963LAA3B/1B2023
Gil Torres1944WSH3B/1B/2B2024
John Valentin1997BOS2B/3B2122
Mickey Witek1943NYG2B2131
Todd Zeile1999
2002
TEX
COL
3B
3B
20
27
25
21
Ryan Zimmerman2007WSN3B2623

So who's got a chance to join this list in 2008? So far, two players have reached the 20 error plateau: Arizona 3B Mark Reynolds and Florida SS Hanley Ramirez. However, Reynolds is at eight GIDP and Ramirez is at five, so it's all but impossible for them to make it. In fact, there is only one player this year with what I consider a realistic shot at making it onto the list. The Seattle shortstop has grounded into fifteen double plays and committed eighteen errors. He's the only 15/15 player so far this year.

Along with checking Daniel Cabrera's HBP total after every start, it might be worth looking to see what Betancourt's done lately for the rest of the year.

Monday, August 18, 2008

2008 LOB Data, Six Weeks to Go

Two posts in one day? What's up with that? Either way, on to the post.

I don't update this nearly as often as I should or would like, but I've got a Google spreadsheet with information about 2008 team left on base numbers. It's basically a lot of numbers, but it contains a lot of interesting information, like how every team plates between 37 and 48% of their runners in scoring position. Every team also leaves between 54 and 64% of their baserunners on base at the end of innings. What's interesting is that driving those runners in doesn't seem to match up very well with the total runs scored by each team, at least in the National League.

For example, here are the LOB percentages (the number of baserunners is total times on base minus home runs - I only wanted to count guys who actually spent time on the basepaths) for each team in both leagues, with their league rank in runs scored per game in parentheses.

2008 National League, LOB% by Team
(through 8/17/08)
  1. Los Angeles, 58.20% (13)
  2. Chicago, 58.65% (1)
  3. Houston, 59.05% (11)
  4. Arizona, 59.15% (9)
  5. Colorado, 59.77% (5)
  6. Pittsburgh, 60.10% (7)
  7. San Francisco, 60.15% (15)
  8. New York, 60.43% (2)
  9. NL AVERAGE, 60.67%
  10. St. Louis, 60.74% (4)
  11. Atlanta, 60.96% (10)
  12. Milwaukee, 61.57% (6)
  13. Washington, 61.64% (16)
  14. Philadelphia, 61.94% (3)
  15. Florida, 62.21% (8)
  16. Cincinnati, 62.36% (12)
  17. San Diego, 64.34% (14)
2008 American League, LOB% by Team
(through 8/17/08)
  1. Minnesota, 54.59% (4)
  2. Los Angeles, 55.99% (8)
  3. Baltimore, 56.94% (3)
  4. Chicago, 57.04% (5)
  5. New York, 57.73% (7)
  6. Texas, 57.99% (1)
  7. Boston, 57.99% (2)
  8. Kansas City, 58.29% (13)
  9. AL AVERAGE, 58.38%
  10. Toronto, 58.90% (11)
  11. Detroit, 59.07% (6)
  12. Tampa Bay, 60.19% (10)
  13. Cleveland, 60.28% (9)
  14. Seattle, 60.57% (12)
  15. Oakland, 62.12% (14)
I guess having the pitcher bat must level the playing field in the senior circuit. Here are the numbers for each team expressed in percentage of runners in scoring position scored, again with runs per game in parentheses.

2008 National League, RISP Scored % by Team
(through 8/17/08)
  1. Chicago, 44.23% (1)
  2. Arizona, 42.79% (9)
  3. Los Angeles, 42.57% (13)
  4. Pittsburgh, 42.51% (7)
  5. Houston, 41.53% (11)
  6. New York, 41.33% (2)
  7. San Francisco, 40.64% (15)
  8. NL AVERAGE, 40.50%
  9. St. Louis, 40.41% (4)
  10. Colorado, 40.31% (5)
  11. Atlanta, 39.74% (10)
  12. Philadelphia, 39.48% (3)
  13. Cincinnati, 38.99% (12)
  14. Milwaukee, 38.90% (6)
  15. Florida, 38.33% (8)
  16. Washington, 37.65% (16)
  17. San Diego, 36.98% (14)
2008 American League, RISP Scored % by Team
(through 8/17/08)
  1. Minnesota, 48.38% (4)
  2. Baltimore, 45.55% (3)
  3. Los Angeles, 45.02% (8)
  4. Texas, 43.97% (1)
  5. Chicago, 43.49% (5)
  6. AL AVERAGE, 42.89%
  7. New York, 42.83% (7)
  8. Boston, 42.78% (2)
  9. Detroit, 42.41% (6)
  10. Kansas City, 41.84% (13)
  11. Cleveland, 41.42% (9)
  12. Seattle, 41.21% (12)
  13. Toronto, 40.94% (11)
  14. Tampa Bay, 40.16% (10)
  15. Oakland, 39.70% (14)
The Twins really bring the AL average up. Again, it's interesting to see how mixed up the National League teams are in terms of runs per game compared to their AL counterparts. Like I said above, maybe having the extra hitter in the lineup helps even things in the American League, but perhaps NL teams are more reliant on home runs (the average NL team has five more homers than the average AL team) and thus they don't get as many other base hits that drive runners in.

I guess the moral of the story is that leaving men on base and driving in runners in scoring position is important in scoring runs, but it's not the whole story. It's annoying when you've watched your favorite team fail at hitting with RISP yet again, but that doesn't mean they necessarily have a dysfunctional offense.

Oh, one final note. When the Cubs were getting everyone and their brother on base all the time earlier this year, they were on pace to set a new record for team left on base in a season by virtue of having a bazillion baserunners. Unfortunately (I guess?), they've fallen off that pace and now are just ahead of the Braves in LOB per game (the difference is 2 runners left on over 124 games). Of course, when you have the best offense in the league, you don't really care about such things.

Daniel Cabrera & Hit Batsmen

Baltimore Orioles righthander Daniel Cabrera has always struggled with controlling his pitches. Over his career, he's walked 5 batters for every nine innings pitched. Since his debut in 2004, he's issued the most bases on balls (461) of any pitcher in the majors. Runner-up Carlos Zambrano has given up 436 walks since the beginning of the 2004 season, and he's thrown almost 200 more innings during that span!

Walking batters on four balls isn't the only way Cabrera puts guys on base. Since his debut, only seven other pitchers have hit as many batters as he has. This year, however, Cabrera has no equal. With six weeks left to play in the season, he's already plunked seventeen batters. No other pitcher in the majors has hit more than twelve hitters this year. While it's true the major league leader in hit batsmen is usually near twenty in a season, Cabrera has a chance to do something that hasn't occurred in over eighty years.

Since 2001, five pitchers (Jamey Wright, Chan Ho Park, Victor Zambrano, Carlos Zambrano, and Bronson Arroyo) have hit exactly twenty batters in a season. It's rare to see a pitcher move past twenty in a year, though. Kerry Wood became the first pitcher in 34 years to throw 21 HBP in a season when he did it for the 2003 Cubs. In fact, he and Tommy Murphy of the 1969 Angels are the only two pitchers to hit 21 or more batters in a season since 1922. In that season, Howard Ehmke of the Tigers plunked 22 opponents.

The Orioles have thirty-nine games remaining this year. Cabrera's next start is Tuesday, so he should have about six or seven more starts after that, barring injury or suspension for, what else, hitting someone. Cabrera has hit batters at a rate of two every three starts so far this year, so he would have to continue or even slightly increase that rate to become the first pitcher in 86 years to plunk 22 hitters in a season. So there you have it, something else to watch besides than waiver trades and guys fighting for jobs next year in Baltimore.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

The "Worst" Hitting Streaks

Have you ever heard a player has a relatively long hitting streak and thought, "Really? He doesn't seem to be hitting that well." Since most regular players will get to the plate about four times in any given game, the lowest batting average a player with a lengthy hitting streak could possibly have would be somewhere around .250. That's assuming the guy never walks and only gets one hit every night.

In reality, it's rare to see a batter take a hitting streak past fifteen games while hitting below .300. Since 1956, only fifteen players have gone to fifteen or more games with such a low batting average, and only one of those guys got to twenty games. It's important to remember that even though they hit below .300, getting a hit in every game is still a positive thing.

Lowest Batting Average in a 15+ Game Hitting Streak, 1956-2008

RankNameStreakGamesAverageH-AB
1Juan PierreSept. 6-22, 200015.27318-66
2Jody DavisMay 16-June 1, 198415.28116-57

Brian RobertsJune 22-July 12, 200115.28118-64
4Don LockSept. 6-22, 196315.28616-56

Richie SexsonJuly 1-18, 200315.28616-56
6Tommie AgeeApr. 16-May 9, 197020.28823-80

Joe CarterApr. 6-23, 199216.28819-66

Lee TinsleyJune 10-25, 199515.28819-66
9Ted SizemoreJune 1-19, 197517.29018-62
10Eric KarrosMay 16-June 2, 199517.29219-65
11Dave McKayMay 19-June 2, 197816.29518-61
12Tony KubekAug. 29-Sept. 13, 196315.29719-64

Brian DowningJuly 28-Aug. 17, 198717.29719-64

Adam KennedyJuly 8-Aug. 3, 200617.29719-64
15Bill BucknerAug. 15-30, 198116.29920-67

The links go to the Baseball-Reference.com gamelogs of each streak. Pierre, Davis, Tinsley, and Karros all had their season batting averages go down during their streaks. Karros and Davis have the excuse that their streaks were relatively early in the season, though. Bill Buckner's streak raised his 1981 average by .00017 from .29778 to .29795.

For fun, I found the lowest batting average for streaks of 20, 21, 22, etc., games since 1956. I've made each player's name the link to his streak. I've also put the year each guy had his streak next to his name. Any gaps in counting (33 games, etc.) means there hasn't been a streak of that length since 1956.
EDIT: It was before 1956, but Joe DiMaggio went 91-223 (.408) during his record 56-game hitting streak.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Balks: The Story of the 1988 Major League Baseball Season

Baseball Official Rule 8.01(b): The pitcher, following his stretch, must (a) hold the ball in both hands in front of his body and (b) come to a complete stop.

1988 Baseball Official Rule 8.01(b): The pitcher, following his stretch, must (a) hold the ball in both hands in front of his body, and (b) come to a single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.

The difference between the two rules is that the 1988 version replaced “complete stop” with “single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.” This slight change, intended to make balk calls more uniform throughout major league baseball, instead sparked one of most frustrating summers ever for major league hurlers. Only six weeks after opening day, Rick Mahler of the Atlanta Braves committed the 357th balk of the 1988 season, breaking the MLB record for most balks in a complete season…with three-quarters of the season to play. Before all was said and done, American League pitchers were called for a staggering 558 balks. Their National League brethren had it a little easier, “only” committing 366 balks. How did an obscure, little-understood rule make such a large impact on the major league game?

Where Did The Balk Rule Come From, Anyway?

The balk rule is difficult to follow through baseball history. The first mention of a balk in baseball rules is found in Alexander Cartwright’s 1845 Knickerbocker Rules. Unfortunately, Cartwright does not define what constitutes a balk. At an 1857 rules convention, a balk was to be called when a pitcher stepped over a line 45 feet away from home plate while delivering a pitch. All baserunners moved up one base.

Section 7 of the 1864 Rules and Regulations of the National Association of Base-Ball Players stated, “The ball must be pitched, not jerked nor thrown to the bat; and whenever the pitcher draws back his hand, or moves with the apparent purpose or pretension to deliver the ball, he shall so deliver it, and he must have neither foot in advance of the front line or off the ground at the time of delivering the ball; and if he fails in either of these particulars, then it shall be declared a baulk [sic].”

Rule 25 of the 1884 Playing Rules of the American Association of Baseball Clubs defined the balk:

  1. A motion made by the Pitcher to deliver the ball to the bat without delivering it, except the ball be accidentally dropped, or
  2. The ball he held by the Pitcher so long as to delay the game unnecessarily, or
  3. Any motion to deliver the ball, or the delivering of the ball to the bat by the Pitcher when any part of his person is upon ground outside the lines of his position.
  4. When after being once warned by the Umpire, the Pitcher continues to deliver the ball with his hand passing above his shoulder.

The first balk rule dealing with runners on base was inserted into the rule book in 1898. It stated a pitcher was compelled to throw to a base if he made a motion in that direction. The following year, the balk rule was refined to say a pitcher could not fake a pickoff throw. In 1940, a throw or faked throw to an unoccupied base became a balk. In 1968, the rules said if a pitcher “goes to his mouth” with men on base, it’s a balk.

You might have noticed that nothing in all of that says anything about coming to a complete stop before pitching. Presumably that rule developed from pitchers attempting to prevent stolen bases. I did find, however, that a new rule requiring a one-second stop before delivering a pitch with men on base was implemented in 1950.

Balk Bumps and Brouhahas

It is clear, however, that the “complete stop” section of the balk rule was in effect in 1937. In a game against the Giants on May 19 of that year, Cardinals pitcher Dizzy Dean was called for a balk in the sixth inning. The Giants went on to score three runs in the inning. Retaliating against the umpires by repeatedly throwing knockdown pitches, Dean eventually runs full speed into Giants player Jimmy Ripple while Ripple is attempting to reach first on a bunt base hit. Following an on-field scuffle, the Cardinals lose the game. In a mocking attempt to further show his displeasure, Dizzy puts a several-second stop in his delivery during his next start. After calling NL president Ford Frick a “crook,” Dean is suspended indefinitely on June 2. He later denied the statements at a meeting with the press and his suspension is lifted a few days later.

League balk totals didn’t show a spike in 1937, so it seems Dean’s case was solitary that season. Thirteen years later, however, NL pitchers committed 76 balks after only being called for 25 the year before. The American League saw a smaller bump, with totals rising to 47 after only 31 the year before. This increase in balks can be explained by the aforementioned new “one second” rule implemented for the 1950 season. On May 3, Yankees pitcher Vic Raschi set a major league record with four balks in one game. At the time, the season record for balks was six.

In a strange coincidence, the National League cracked down on balks again for the 1963 season. After only 48 balks in 1962, the NL total jumped up to 147 in 1963. An order to umpires to clamp down on balks resulted in twenty balks called in the first twenty games of the year. Bob Friend of the Pittsburgh Pirates set an NL season record with six balks…in his first seventeen innings. Consternation was so great that National League President Warren Giles instructed umpires to disregard the “one second” requirement on April 27. At the time of the announcement, NL pitchers had committed 68 balks while AL pitchers had committed two. Despite the new instructions, NL umpires still called more balks (79) than their AL counterparts (45) over the last five months of the season. Following the season, NL balks were back in line with old totals for the rest of the decade.

The National League again took the lead in cracking down on balks for the 1974 season. While AL totals once again stayed pat, NL totals more than doubled from 52 in 1973 to 140 in 1974. Strangely, there did not seem to be much of a furor over the increase in balks called. One possible explanation for the rise was the ultimately rejected “balk line” experiment intended to make it easier to call balks on pickoff throws to first. Did NL umpires just get used to calling balks more often than AL umps? Whatever the case, NL balk totals stayed in the triple digits for nearly thirty years.

Hey, That’s Not in the Chinese Zodiac: “1988: The Year of the Balk”

Both leagues would be affected by a sharp increase in balks fourteen years later. A jaw-dropping increase in balks led to the 1988 season being called “The Year of the Balk.” For once, the American League was responsible for most of the balk blow-up, with an increase from 137 balks in 1987 to 558 in 1988. The National League went from 219 to 366.

As I mentioned to start the post, the reason for the bump was a change in Rule 8.01(b). The phrase “complete stop” was switched to “single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.” The origin of the rule change was supposedly the 1987 World Series. St. Louis Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog vocally complained about Twins pitcher Bert Blyleven, vehemently claiming there were up to nineteen uncalled balks in the series. The Twins ultimately won the World Series in seven games. Regardless of what prompted the change in phrasing, the man responsible, in the eyes of many fans, was National League president and soon to be Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti. Formerly the president of Yale University, Giamatti took over as NL president in 1986. In between the 1987 and 1988 season, Giamatti was part of the rules committee that decided to change the wording of the balk rule. Thanks to an awful lot of press coverage, Giamatti became the most visible member of the rules committee and, as such, was tagged as the man behind the new balk rule. Suspending Reds manager Pete Rose for a month after Rose shoved an umpire didn’t help fans’ opinion of Giamatti. In late July at Shea Stadium, during the number retirement ceremony for pitcher Tom Seaver, Giamatti was soundly booed by the Mets crowd.

Giamatti wasn’t the only one on the rules committee, so it’s unfair to single him out for the havoc the new rule caused. Before the regular season started, spring training games showed that there might be issues with balks. On March 7, twelve balks were called in one game between the Rangers and Blue Jays. Rangers knuckleballer Charlie Hough had a rough day, being called for seven balks in the second inning, and nine in the game. By March 15, the Major League Baseball Players Association was complaining about balks and umpires had called 124 balks in 126 games, six times the rate as the previous season.

No action was taken to prevent “Balkmania” as some people began calling the deluge of balks. In the first week of the 1988 season, umpires called 73 balks. In 1987, umpires only called nineteen balks in the same amount of time. Less than two weeks into the season, balks leaguewide were already 40% of the way to the total number of balks called the previous year, and the Oakland Athletics as a team had already passed the team totals of every 1987 AL team except Texas. The increase in balks raised tensions not only on the field, but in dugouts as well. Following a bases loaded balk by De Wayne Buice in late April, California Angels pitching coach Marcel Lachemann vented about the new balk rule: “They're going to make some rules because that little white-haired bleep in the National League moaned.” Always fiery Yankees manager Billy Martin suggested he would tell his pitchers to stop for five minutes between every pitch.

The single-season MLB record for total balks was broken on May 15, only 41 days into the season. At that point in the season, Oakland pitcher Dave Stewart had committed eleven balks to that point, tying the major league record for most balks in a season. It took until May 26 to have a day go by without a balk in major league baseball. The fourteen balk-less games lowered the MLB balks per game average to 0.76 (416 in 544 games).

Finally, after 924 balks in the major leagues during the 1988 season, baseball’s leaders had had enough. On January 26, 1989, the MLB rules committee decided to change the wording of the balk rule back to what it had been before the 1987 season. Balk totals dropped in 1989 and fell even further in 1990. There haven’t been any spikes in balk numbers since that season.

The Damage to the Record Books Revealed (Where’s the Asterisk?)

As I mentioned, the major league record for balks in a season by one pitcher going into the year was Steve Carlton’s 11 in 1979. In 1988, seven different pitchers had at least eleven balks, including one reliever:

  1. Dave Stewart, OAK, 16, 275 2/3 IP
  2. Bob Welch, OAK, 13, 244 2/3
  3. Jose Guzman, TEX, 12, 206 2/3
  4. John Candelaria, NYY, 12, 157
  5. Jack Morris, DET, 11, 235
  6. Mike Birkbeck, MIL, 11, 124
  7. Rod Scurry, SEA, 11, 31 1/3

Dennis Martinez (Montreal), Pascual Perez (Montreal), and David Cone (New York) shared the National League lead with 10 balks on the year.

The AL team record for balks in a season had been 26, set by Texas in 1987. Only one AL team managed to finish 1988 with fewer than 26 balks:

  1. Oakland, 76
  2. Detroit, 68
  3. Texas, 57
  4. Seattle, 55
  5. New York, 41
  6. Boston, 39
  7. Milwaukee, 39
  8. Cleveland, 38
  9. Minnesota, 38
  10. California, 37
  11. Chicago, 30
  12. Toronto, 29
  13. Kansas City, 27
  14. Baltimore, 25

Montreal paced the National League with 41 balks on the year. New York and Pittsburgh were on the Expos’ heels with 40.

One strange postscript to the Year of the Balk was John Dopson's 1989 season. After committing only one balk in 168 2/3 innings for the Expos in 1988, Dopson was called for fifteen balks in 1989 as a member of the Red Sox.

Further Reading

I found a few articles from 1988 that appeared the New York Times and Sports Illustrated that had a lot of the numbers I used. The end-of-season numbers come from Baseball-Reference.com