Vulture Wins by MLB Franchise, 1956-2008
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
- St. Louis Cardinals, 455
- Cincinnati Reds, 444
- Atlanta Braves, 443
- Philadelphia Phillies, 440
- San Francisco Giants, 437
- Chicago Cubs, 403
- Pittsburgh Pirates, 395
- Los Angeles Dodgers, 393
- Houston Astros, 385
- New York Mets, 359
- San Diego Padres, 359
- Washington Nationals, 354
- Oakland Athletics, 343
- Chicago White Sox, 334
- Cleveland Indians, 334
- New York Yankees, 333
- Minnesota Twins, 319
- Boston Red Sox, 315
- Detroit Tigers, 298
- Los Angeles Angels, 296
- Texas Rangers, 274
- Baltimore Orioles, 272
- Milwaukee Brewers, 268
- Kansas City Royals, 233
- Seattle Mariners, 219
- Toronto Blue Jays, 200
- Colorado Rockies, 198
- Florida Marlins, 170
- Arizona Diamondbacks, 148
- Tampa Bay Rays, 89
Obviously the bottom part of the list is cluttered by expansion teams, but something still jumps out at me. The first American League team doesn't show up until place #13, beneath four National League expansion teams. I suspect most of that is due to the designated hitter. After all, if the pitcher's spot never comes up, then it's easier to leave a reliever in for more than one inning, thus making it much harder for him to pick up a vulture win. It also makes it easier to leave a starter pitching well in a close game on the mound if you don't need to pinch hit for offense.
Blown Save Wins by MLB Franchise, 1956-2008
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
- New York Yankees, 169
- San Francisco Giants, 157
- Oakland Athletics, 149
- Boston Red Sox, 143
- Minnesota Twins, 140
- Texas Rangers, 140
- Pittsburgh Pirates, 138
- Chicago Cubs, 135
- Chicago White Sox, 134
- Baltimore Orioles, 125
- Los Angeles Dodgers, 125
- Los Angeles Angels, 124
- Cleveland Indians, 122
- Atlanta Braves, 121
- Cincinnati Reds, 121
- Philadelphia Phillies, 114
- San Diego Padres, 111
- Detroit Tigers, 110
- Houston Astros, 110
- New York Mets, 107
- Milwaukee Brewers, 103
- St. Louis Cardinals, 101
- Washington Nationals, 97
- Kansas City Royals, 95
- Seattle Mariners, 84
- Toronto Blue Jays, 73
- Colorado Rockies, 39
- Florida Marlins, 39
- Tampa Bay Rays, 29
- Arizona Diamondbacks, 23
This list isn't quite as separated by league, but that makes sense. When a closer comes in and blows a save yet still picks up the win, his team most likely regained the lead in their next time at bat. Even if the closer is pinch hit for in his team's next time at bat in NL games, he's still the pitcher of record, so there's no favoring one league over the other in terms of blown save wins by team.
I'm surprised a team like Arizona that's had pretty good success during its time in the majors trails everyone else. I would've expected a team with less wins overall (like Tampa Bay) to be far behind all other teams simply because of a lack of save opportunities. Then again, perhaps Tampa Bay has had more blown saves than Arizona and thus more chances to win those games for their closer(s).
I'm surprised a team like Arizona that's had pretty good success during its time in the majors trails everyone else. I would've expected a team with less wins overall (like Tampa Bay) to be far behind all other teams simply because of a lack of save opportunities. Then again, perhaps Tampa Bay has had more blown saves than Arizona and thus more chances to win those games for their closer(s).
2 comments:
Great way to tie up this research on Vulture Wins and Blown Save Wins (and thanks for undertaking it). Your rationale for explaining the findings by league does indeed hold up to scrutiny, but with one important caveat. The DH ws not introduced into the AL until 1973, so that cannot fully explain the league differential. The only other major rule difference I recall is how many players could meet on the mound during a manager conference, so it isn't that!
What I would like to see is a slight modification to the results that takes the number of seasons/games into consideration. I was about to try this myself, but I figure you have better access to the data needed. Take your results and divide them by the actual number of games played in the timespan for each team (or the number of seasons played). I prefer games so it takes work stoppages into consideration. You then end up with a statistic showing VW Per Season (or per x games). That removes the game differential and might elevate some of the bottom-feeders higher.
As predicted, I noticed that the Yankees led in the BSW category. They have always been about superstar starters, solid closers, and generally mediocre relievers. One cannot argue with success, though.
The aspect we did not cover was post-season, but I consider that a whole different game. You are encouraged to come up with more studies on post-season stats, as they are largely ignored (mostly because they never factor into fantasy leagues). Contact me if you need some inspiration.
Bopperland
Indeed there are almost two decades from 1956 until the designated hitter rule takes effect, but pitcher usage also changed drastically. Only 17% of vulture wins took place in the period 1956-1972 which covers about 1/3 of the seasons for which I have data, reflecting the fact relievers weren't used as much until more recently (there were as many vulture wins from 1956 through 1972 as there have been since July 11, 2004). So while not having the DH helped balance things out at the beginning but by the time relievers really started racking up vulture wins the DH had been around for a while.
Just to make sure, I looked up the franchise numbers for 1956-1972 and teams from both leagues are jumbled together, but looking at 1973-2008 puts the NL decisively over the AL again.
Any VW per games played number for 1956-2008 would be skewed as well, so I'm thinking even just looking at the last 10.5 seasons (since the last expansion) might be more interesting.
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