More Strikeouts Than Times on Base

In a comment on my post of last Sunday, Mitchell Marshall suggested I look at players whose career strikeout percentage was greater than their career on base percentage. It's an interesting idea and I wish it didn't take me a week to get to it, but so it goes. I'm sure most readers are aware of the formula for on base percentage:



Thanks Wikipedia. The numerator of that fraction is sometimes shortened to times on base (TOB). There's other ways to reach base (errors, fielder's choice, etc.), but the three used in calculating OBP are the most common. So in order to compare strikeouts to on base percentage, I think it would be simplest to compare strikeouts to times on base. Thus in this post strikeout percentage is that same fraction but with only strikeouts in the numerator.

Tossing out pitchers, twenty-one players had 20 or more strikeouts than times on base in their careers. Most of them had a single season's worth or fewer plate appearances. Obviously, they all struggled to get on base: the highest OBP on the list is .328. Only five hitters were over .300.

Players With 20+ More Strikeouts Than Times on Base in Career

Name	Career	PA	SO	TOB	SO-TOB	SO%	OBP
Tom Egan	1965-1975	1084	336	285	51	.313	.266
Jim Fuller	1973-1977	341	130	84	46	.385	.249
J.R. Phillips	1993-1999	545	180	134	46	.331	.247
Melvin Nieves	1992-1998	1392	483	437	46	.347	.314
Dave Nicholson	1960-1967	1661	573	527	46	.346	.318
Russell Branyan	1998-2008	2319	797	759	38	.344	.328
Chad Hermansen	1999-2004	541	168	136	32	.315	.255
Ed Gastfield	1884-1885	90	37	8	29	.411	.089
Brad Eldred	2005-2007	255	93	64	29	.365	.251
Bo Jackson	1986-1994	2626	841	812	29	.321	.309
Jared Sandberg	2001-2003	706	236	208	28	.337	.297
Cliff Cook	1959-1963	435	136	109	27	.317	.254
Billy Ashley	1992-1998	688	236	211	25	.343	.307
Kevin Cash	2002-2008	557	161	137	24	.292	.248
Mike Hubbard	1995-2001	198	60	37	23	.303	.187
Jason Smith	2001-2008	591	172	150	22	.297	.259
Frank Cox	1884	104	36	15	21	.346	.144
Paul Ratliff	1963-1972	336	119	98	21	.355	.293
Phil Hiatt	1993-2001	463	149	128	21	.323	.278
Jackie Warner	1966	133	55	35	20	.414	.263
Ray Busse	1971-1974	168	54	34	20	.325	.205

My favorite player listed above is Ed Gastfield. The youngest player in the 1884 National League, Gastfield backed up Detroit catcher Charlie Bennett. While Bennett was a hitting star (OPS+ of 129 or higher in 7 of 8 seasons in Detroit), Gastfield was hapless at the plate. It's possible he was overmatched because of how young he was, but his awful .073/.095/.085 (6-82, 1 2B, 2 BB, 34 K in 84 PA) batting line in 23 games didn't make it likely he'd get a chance when he was older. Neither did his 20 passed balls and 35 errors in 19 games. Gastfield did suit up one time for Detroit in 1885, going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. Somehow he made his way to Chicago, appearing in one game and going 0-3 with 1 strikeout and 3 passed balls. That game ended his major league career.

Gastfield's career batting line works out to .068/.089/.080, good for a .169 OPS. I know it's comparing dissimilar things but I think it's interesting his SO% was more than double his OPS. He's one of only four players in all of major league history to have a higher SO% than OPS in 50 or more plate appearances:

• Ed Gastfield, .411 SO%, .168 OPS in 90 PA
  
• Enrique Cruz, .390 SO%, .240 OPS in 77 PA
• John Roskos, .358 SO%, .294 OPS in 53 PA
• Frank Cox, .346 SO%, .321 OPS in 104 PA

Fred Wood, the second-youngest player in the 1884 NL and Ed Gastfield's teammate, had a .367 SO% and .188 OPS in 49 plate appearances. Frank Cox also played on the 1884 Detroit Wolverines, helping to explain why they went 28-84, though at 26 he was an old man on the club. If 1884 is currently known as the year Chicago tinkered with their outfield fences and skewed home run totals, it should also be known as the year Detroit had a really, really, really bad offense. It's skewed because of the aforementioned Chicago shenanigans, but the team's OPS+ was 74. The team hit .208/.247/.284. Blech.

What of Cruz and Roskos? Well, Cruz was a rule 5 draft pick who spent all of 2003 in the majors with Milwaukee and resurfaced for one at bat with Cincinnati in 2007. Roskos was a C/1B/OF type who was drafted in the second round by Florida in 1993 and worked his way up the Marlins' minor league system but never really got a shot in the majors.

Most PA in a Season, OBP < AVG

Last week, St. Louis Cardinals blog Fungoes wrote about players in Cardinals history with a lower on base percentage than batting average in a season. It seems weird, but since the formula for OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF), having a higher batting average than on base percentage is possible if you have more sacrifice flies than walks and HBP's. (EDIT: Zeyes points out my error in the comments: you need two to three times as many SF as BB+HBP.)

Sacrifice flies have only been recorded in the major leagues since 1954 so it would be impossible for a player before then to have an OBP less than their batting average. Since that date, however, 160 players have pulled off the feat in a season. The highest number of plate appearances in a season on the list is 131 (Eddie Bowman, 1963). As might be expected then, most on the list are pitchers who don't bat very much and aren't generally known for plate discipline. However, the occasional position player (including Bowman) also shows up.

Only twenty-three players have eighty or more plate appearances in a season with an on base percentage less than their batting average. I've listed them below, as well as the players on the list for their 2007 season.

Rank	Name	Year	Team	PA	AB	H	SF	AVG	OBP	Position
1	Ernie Bowman	1963	SFG	131	125	23	2	.184	.181	IF
2	Rob Picciolo	1977	CAL	128	119	24	1	.202	.200	IF
3	Fernando Valenzuela	1980	LAD	116	109	24	1	.220	.218	P
	Catfish Hunter	1965	OAK	116	105	23	2	.219	.215	P
5	Tony Cloninger	1961	MLN	114	105	17	2	.162	.159	P
6	Mike Cuellar	1959	BAL	113	103	12	2	.117	.114	P
7	Steve Carlton	1965	PHI	112	102	25	3	.245	.238	P
8	Jim Bunning	1955	PHI	109	99	12	1	.121	.120	P
9	Sam McDowell	1961	CLE	104	92	16	1	.174	.172	P
10	Fernando Valenzuela	1980	LAD	103	97	21	1	.216	.214	P
11	Jim Adduci	1983	MIL	97	94	25	3	.266	.258	LF
12	Pedro Ramos	1955	WSH	96	88	21	1	.239	.236	P
	Rick Reuschel	1972	CHC	96	86	19	1	.221	.218	P
14	Randy Jones	1973	SDP	94	86	15	1	.174	.172	P
15	Bobby Clark	1979	CAL	93	90	19	1	.211	.209	OF
16	Mario Soto	1977	CIN	92	87	18	1	.207	.205	P
17	Phil Niekro	1964	ATL	91	87	17	1	.195	.193	P
18	Bob Forsch	1974	STL	88	76	13	1	.171	.169	P
	Ray Moore	1952	BAL	88	84	18	1	.214	.212	P
20	Midre Cummings	1993	PIT	87	85	19	1	.224	.221	OF
21	Billy Beane	1984	OAK	82	79	19	1	.241	.238	RF
22	Fergie Jenkins	1965	CHC	80	67	10	1	.149	.147	P
	Ron Reed	1966	ATL	80	73	13	2	.178	.173	P

As I mentioned above, two players joined the full list of players last year. Livan Hernandez had a line of .213/.211/.267 in 79 PA for Arizona and Wladimir Balentien had a line of .667/.500/2.000 in a whopping four plate appearances for Seattle.

Only two players are on pace to join the list so far this year. One is Orioles hurler Garrett Olson with his .333/.250/.333 line in five plate appearances. Since interleague play is over, he is unlikely to hit again this year, barring a trade. The other player who may join the list is Arizona outfielder Alex Romero. In 38 major league plate appearances, Romero has a .229/.222/.286 line. He currently finds himself in AAA but may yet find his way back to the big club. Just another quirky thing to keep track of in the second half of the season.

Lowest OBP to Qualify for the Batting Title

I'm kind of punting on the post today. I'm sure this is a list you can find elsewhere, but I thought it was worth posting here.

Lowest On Base Percentages by Batting Title Qualifiers Since 1901
(the history of requirements to win a batting title can be found here)

1. Bill Bergen, 1909, .163
2. Bill Bergen, 1906, .175
3. Bill Bergen, 1908, .189
4. Ossee Schreckengost, 1904, .199
5. Bill Bergen, 1901, .199
6. Bill Bergen, 1904, .204
7. Bert Adams, 1918, .214
8. Bill Bergen, 1902, .214
9. Ed Gagnier, 1914, .219
10. Hal Lanier, 1968, .222
11. Billy Sullivan, 1909, .226
12. Andres Thomas, 1989, .228
13. Joe Dugan, 1918, .230
14. Bones Ely, 1901, .232
    
15. Hobe Ferris, 1909, .232
16. Fred Raymer, 1905, .232
17. Mickey Doolan, 1918, .233
18. Del Young, 1937, .235
19. Billy Sullivan, 1907, .235
20. Billy Sullivan, 1908, .235

I think Bill Bergen may be single-handedly responsible for the stereotype that catchers that play well defensively are anemic hitters at best. It probably says something that so many players on this list put up their seasons before 1920, so let's look at the leaderboard after the deadball era.

Lowest On Base Percentages by Batting Title Qualifiers Since 1920

1. Hal Lanier, 1968, .222
2. Andres Thomas, 1989, .228
3. Del Young, 1937, .235
4. Jim Levey, 1933, .237
5. Hal Lanier, 1967, .239
6. Skeeter Webb, 1944, .242
7. Alfredo Griffin, 1981, .243
8. Pete Suder, 1943, .243
9. Matt Walbeck, 1994, .246
10. Todd Cruz, 1982, .246
11. Ray Berres, 1940, .246
12. Ray Berres, 1941, .247
13. Doug Flynn, 1981, .247
14. Cookie Rojas, 1968, .248
15. Zoilo Versalles, 1967, .249
16. Bobby Mattick, 1940, .250
17. Cory Snyder, 1989, .251
18. Wally Gilbert, 1932, .252
19. Buster Maynard, 1943, .252
20. Billy Hunter, 1953, .253
    

Lowest OBP by a DH, minimum 400 PA

This is along the same lines as the last post, only now I'm using on base percentage because it's a better measure of how a player avoids making outs. The restrictions are the same: 400+ PA and 75+% of games as a DH.

For fun, I'll list the top (bottom?) twenty seasons:

1. George Bell, 1993, .243
2. Dave Kingman, 1986, .255
3. Ken Singleton, 1984, .286
4. Lee May, 1978, .286
5. Dave Parker, 1991, .288
6. George Bell, 1992, .294
7. Lee May, 1979, .297
8. Alvin Davis, 1991, .299
9. Reggie Jackson, 1984, .300
10. Jeffrey Leonard, 1989, .301
11. Eddie Murray, 1994, .302
12. Willie Horton, 1978, .303
13. Andre Thornton, 1985, .304
14. Josh Phelps, 2004, .304
15. Dave Parker, 1989, .308
16. Dave Kingman, 1985, .309
17. Reggie Jefferson, 1993, .310
18. Sammy Sosa, 2007, .311
19. Carl Everett, 2005, .311
20. George Brett, 1993, .312

George Bell and Lee May are the only two players in MLB history to post an OBP under .300 in more than one season as a full-time DH.

Designated Hitters

I don't know about you, but whenever I picture a designated hitter, it's a thunderfooted, lumbering, home run masher. David Ortiz plays well into the conventional thinking of a quality DH. The thing is, however, not all DH's are home run hitters. In fact, especially on bad teams, many times the DH is just whatever position player on the team needed a day off defensively. To wit, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays this year used 13 different designated hitters, with Greg Norton leading all players with 46 starts.

In order to try and verify the perception of designated hitters as pure mashers, I decided to use the league splits (Example: 2007 Major League splits) at Baseball-Reference.com to get data on DH performance since the DH rule was enacted in 1973. Since National League teams don't have to plan a roster spot for the designated hitter, I decided only to look at American League numbers. Since the advent of interleague play, the non-DH numbers are slightly skewed due to pitchers batting, but the effect shouldn't be too drastic.

First, let's look at the traditional, though flawed, measure of batting average to compare designated hitters to the rest of the league:

(click image to enlarge)


Alright, so we can see that traditionally designated hitters hit for a lower average than the rest of their AL counterparts. This seems to support the idea that DH's aim to hit for power rather than average. Note the sharp dropoff in 1985; this isn't the last time we'll note that particular season.

Now let's turn our attention to a hitter's main goal: avoiding outs. On Base Percentage helps us here, as it's a measure of a player's ability to, well, get on base and avoid outs.

(click image to enlarge)


Here we can see that designated hitters generally have been better at getting on base than the rest of the AL. This is especially apparent in the mid-to-late 1990's. Interestingly, for the first decade after the DH rule took effect the players in the DH role did not really distinguish themselves from the rest of the league. This graph also shows the mysterious dip in 1985.

So designated hitters get on base more than the rest of the league. Woohoo. If they really are so good at driving the ball, it should show up in their slugging percentages. Let's take a look:

(click image to enlarge)


So, every year since 1973 has seen slugging percentages by DH at least equal to the rest of the league. In many cases, designated hitters slugged much better than the rest of the league. It's beginning to become repetitive, but the one season the rest of the league caught up to their DH's was...1985! This chart confirms the idea of designated hitters being better than average at mashing the ball. In fact, the last two charts show the overall superiority of players used as DH's at hitting in general. Using OPS, or On Base plus Slugging, a metric giving a quick-and-dirty yet useful approximation of a hitter's value, we can see the value of designated hitters.

(click image to enlarge)


As we can see, and as we gathered from the last two charts, designated hitters have a higher OPS than the rest of the league virtually every season. The only expection, obviously, was 1985. What exactly went on that year, anyway?

Baseball-Reference also has an interesting split statistic called tOPS+. This statistic compares how DH's compare to the numbers for the whole league. Anything over 100 means they were better than the rest of the league in terms of OPS, while anything less than 100 means they were worse. You might say this chart is a re-hashing of the last one, but it gives an impression of the degree to which DH's were better than the rest of the league. Finally, tOPS+ has a pretty simple formula for this chart: 100*((DH_OBP/AL_OBP) + (DH_SLG/AL_SLG) - 1).

(click image to enlarge)


It turns out that ever since roughly 1991 those DH's have been much better than the rest of the league. The expansion year (for the NL) in 1993 saw a dip in DH dominance, but other than that the designated hitters have exceeded 110 every season. Who could have figured that 1985 was the only year since 1973 that DH's were worse than the rest of the league? Anyone?

To recap, we've determined that DH's generally hit for worse average (swinging for the fences?), get on base more (walked because they represent a power threat?), slug better, and put up higher OPS numbers than the rest of the league. If they truly are swinging for the fences because they're home run hitters, might it show up in their strikeout percentage (strikeouts over at bats)? I think it might, but let's appeal to the chart:

(click image to enlarge)


Well, well, well, it turns out these guys are free swingers. While strikeout percentage overall has gone up since 1973, it's gone up faster for designated hitters. For the last dozen years, one out of every five at bats by a designated hitter has been a strikeout (as opposed to two out of eleven for the rest of the league). Pretty neat stuff.

Finally, there's one more statistic that might tell us whether designated hitters are swinging for the fences. I'm referring to home run percentage, or home runs over at bats. This should give us a final clue to the power displayed by designated hitters. Here we go:

(click image to enlarge)


So, perhaps obviously, it turns out that designated hitters do hit home runs at a higher percentage than the rest of the league. Just eyeballing it, it seems as though the HR% for the average DH is 4/3 that of another average position player. That's pretty cool.

I may have just spent a significant amount of time telling the world what it already knew: designated hitters are better hitters than the rest of the American League. It took some time for patience and/or other on-base skills to develop, but the slugging percentage, strikeouts and home runs were always there. If nothing else, I hope this lengthy post brought the fact designated hitters in 1985 suffered a dip in numbers compared to the rest of the league. I'm not really sure why that is, but in hopes someone sees something, I'll list below the batting lines for every player to spend 50 or more games at DH in 1985. Thanks for reading this marathon entry!

Name	Age	Team	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ron Kittle	27	CHW	57	.250	.305	.526	.831
Hal McRae	39	KCR	105	.264	.355	.459	.814
Jeff Burroughs	34	TOR	74	.267	.377	.433	.810
Gorman Thomas	34	SEA	133	.215	.330	.451	.781
Don Baylor	36	NYY	140	.232	.332	.432	.764
Cliff Johnson	37	TEX	103	.264	.337	.425	.762
Larry Sheets	25	BAL	93	.262	.323	.418	.741
Mike Easler	34	BOS	130	.259	.320	.411	.731
Reggie Jackson	39	CAL	52	.196	.335	.387	.722
Roy Smalley	32	MIN	56	.244	.348	.372	.720
Ted Simmons	35	MIL	99	.265	.325	.390	.715
Dave Kingman	36	OAK	149	.233	.301	.404	.705
Andre Thornton	35	CLE	122	.235	.301	.400	.701
Jorge Orta	34	KCR	85	.263	.310	.384	.694
Al Oliver	38	TOR	59	.253	.276	.376	.652
Len Matuszek	30	TOR	52	.220	.265	.319	.584

The only thing that struck me as curious was Reggie Jackson's bizarre split as RF/DH (.286/.378/.555 in 325 PA vs. .196/.335/.387 in 206 PA). He spent slightly more time as a designated hitter late in the season but overall his starts are pretty mixed up.

Highest BA, OBP under .300

I've always kind of liked these guys: players with batting averages very close to their on base percentages. I wouldn't want them on my team necessarily, but I enjoy their inability or unwillingness to take walks.

With that in mind, I looked up the top batting averages in a single season (since 1871) with 400+ PA (to allow for catchers not playing every day) and an on base percentage under .300. Only those seasons featuring batting averages over .275 are listed (22 of 1,959):

Name	Season	AVG	OBP
Charlie Carr	1903	.281	.296
Ivan Rodriguez	2007	.281	.294
Harry Swacina	1914	.280	.297
Dave Foutz	1886	.280	.297
Ozzie Guillen	1993	.280	.292
Don Kolloway	1946	.280	.293
Johnny Estrada	2007	.278	.296
Damaso Garcia	1980	.278	.296
Joe Hornung	1883	.278	.291
Hal Chase	1917	.277	.296
Wayne Nordhagen	1980	.277	.294
Hick Carpenter	1885	.277	.295
Tom Burns	1886	.276	.298
Ron Coomer	1998	.276	.295
Ivan Rodriguez	2005	.276	.290
George Wright	1879	.276	.299
Brian Hunter	1996	.276	.297
Bengie Molina	2007	.276	.298
Rafael Ramirez	1988	.276	.298
Larry Bowa	1974	.275	.298
Jerry Denny	1883	.275	.291
Bill Buckner	1973	.275	.297

I find it interesting three 2007 catchers (Rodriguez, Estrada, and Bengie Molina) made it onto the list.

100+ RBI, OBP under .300

This was inspired by Khalil Greene's season line: .252/.290/.462 with 93 RBI. There's only been nine players ever to collect 100 or more RBI with an on base percentage under .300. Greene likely won't do it, but he's the closest to the feat this season.

1. Joe Carter, 1990, 115 RBI, .290 OBP
   
2. George Bell, 1992, 112, .294
   
3. Tony Batista, 2004, 110, .272
   
4. Tony Armas, 1983, 107, .254!!!
   
5. Joe Carter, 1989, 105, .292
   
6. Jeff Francoeur, 2006, 103, .293
7. Joe Carter, 1997, 102, .284
8. Ruben Sierra, 1993, 101, .288
9. Joe Pepitone, 1964, 100, .281

Pepitone was pretty lonely there on the list for a while. It's pretty interesting how Carter placed on the list three times (Tony Batista missed a second appearance by one RBI in 2003). I think it underscores this Beyond the Box Score article about 100 RBI not always being a benchmark for greatness.

Who needs Hits?

Rickie Weeks of the Milwaukee Brewers has 74 hits in 323 at bats this season, "good" for a .229 batting average. He has shown good plate discipline and a proclivity to be hit with pitches, taking 56 walks and being hit 12 times. Altogether, he's reached base 142 times in 395 plate appearances. Taking out his three sacrifice hits, he's got a .362 on base percentage. Not bad for a guy who can't put the bat on the ball very well. Here's a list of the players since 1901 that have had a lower batting average and a higher on base percentage in at least 395 plate appearances (I used 392 when I posted this on Brew Crew Ball because it was in my mind after taking out his sacrifice hits).

Name	Year	PA	AVG	OBP
Roy Cullenbine	1947	607	.224	.401
Wes Westrum	1951	474	.219	.400
Gene Tenace	1980	416	.222	.399
Gene Tenace	1978	515	.224	.392
Jimmy Wynn	1976	584	.207	.377
Mickey Tettleton	1990	559	.223	.376
Wes Westrum	1952	403	.220	.374
Gene Tenace	1974	612	.211	.367
Rickey Henderson	2001	465	.227	.366
Bud Harrelson	1974	412	.227	.366
Tim Salmon	2001	581	.227	.365
Donie Bush	1915	703	.228	.364
Charlie Gehringer	1941	537	.220	.363

By making the criterion 395 PA rather than 392 PA, it cuts out Roy Cullenbine's 1940 when he put up a .220/.369 line in 394 PA. Either way, Weeks is having an uncommon year.