Three True Outcomes Per Plate Appearance, 1913-2009

An update to my Three True Outcomes (TTO) posts of January 2008 and July 2009. This version is complete through 2009. Once again, I have expanded the board by five more places.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2009, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Adam Dunn	5417	1433	913	316	.4914
2	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
3	Ryan Howard	3145	878	406	222	.4789
4	Jim Thome	9463	2313	1619	564	.4751
5	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
6	Carlos Pena	3713	973	495	202	.4498
7	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
8	Pat Burrell	5864	1392	842	265	.4262
9	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
10	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
11	Brad Wilkerson	3753	947	492	122	.4159
12	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
13	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
14	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
15	Troy Glaus	5872	1277	791	304	.4040
16	Jason Bay	3897	896	491	185	.4034
17	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
18	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
19	Nick Swisher	3119	665	439	133	.3966
20	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
21	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
22	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
23	Richie Sexson	5604	1313	588	306	.3938
24	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
25	Jim Edmonds	7307	1669	974	382	.3924
T-26	Cecil Fielder	5939	1316	693	319	.3920
T-26	Ray Lankford	6674	1550	828	238	.3920
28	Mike Schmidt	10062	1883	1507	548	.3914
29	Harmon Killebrew	9831	1699	1559	573	.3897
T-30	Sammy Sosa	9896	2306	929	609	.3884
T-30	Mike Cameron	7435	1798	825	265	.3884

If you carry it out beyond four decimal places the ties go away but, hey, I wanted an excuse to include another active player.

Russell Branyan is poised to jump atop the table with 176 more plate apperances. Through 2824 career PA, he has 946 strikeouts, 339 walks, and 164 home runs, good for a .5131 TTO/PA. If you add the necessary 176 TTO-less PA to get to 3000, he still places third with .4830. Not bad. Bo Jackson, of all people, pops up between Pete Incaviglia and Richie Sexson by the same method.

Another player who should make his way into the table next year is Brad Hawpe. He sits at .3983 after 2807 career plate appearances. If Tony Clark signs on somewhere next season, he might work his way back onto the list. He's currently 32nd at .3881.

Three True Outcomes per Plate Appearance, 1913-2008

An update to my Three True Outcomes (TTO) post of January 2008. As mentioned there, batting strikeouts weren't consistently recorded until 1913, so I start counting TTO from there.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Adam Dunn	4749	1256	797	278	.4908
2	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
3	Jim Thome	9029	2190	1550	541	.4741
4	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
5	Carlos Pena	3143	810	408	163	.4394
6	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
7	Pat Burrell	5388	1273	785	251	.4285
8	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
9	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
10	Brad Wilkerson	3753	947	492	122	.4159
11	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
12	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
13	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
14	Troy Glaus	5840	1269	788	304	.4043
15	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
16	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
17	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
18	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
19	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
20	Richie Sexson	5604	1313	588	306	.3938
21	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
22	Jason Bay	3259	734	397	149	.3928
23	Jim Edmonds	7307	1669	974	382	.3924
24	Cecil Fielder	5939	1316	693	319	.3920
25	Ray Lankford	6674	1550	828	238	.3920

Adam Dunn finally edged Rob Deer out of the top spot.

I expanded the board to the top 25 for this post. Carlos Pena joined the top 20 this year, as did Richie Sexson. Eric Davis and Jim Edmonds fell out of the top 25, but stay in the top 25 with a new addition between them. Reggie Jackson remains the only member of the club with 10000 PA, though Jim Thome is getting close. Mike Schmidt narrowly missed joining him with his .3914 TTO/PA in 10062 PA.

In case you were wondering, the lowest career TTO% table didn't change. Here is a simple list of the bottom ten active players, minimum 3000 PA:

• Juan Pierre, .1128
• Placido Polanco, .1316
• Cesar Izturis, .1424
• David Eckstein, .1462
• Paul Lo Duca, .1490
• Bengie Molina, .1561
• Ichiro Suzuki, .1651
• Jason Kendall, .1684
• Orlando Cabrera, .1687
• Miguel Cairo, .1690
  

Three True Outcomes per Plate Apperance

Baseball Prospectus has an article (well, many of them) about the "Three True Outcomes" (TTO) that you can read here. The long and short of it is that strikeouts, walks, and home runs are "true outcomes" in the sense that fielders don't have to get involved at all in the play (Jose Canseco excepted). That article details hitters from 2003 and normalizes the rates of each statistic to determine the guys who fit the mold of TTO guys perfectly, but I just want to put the raw career numbers out there. If a guy is good enough to draw a fantastically high number of walks or lasts forever swinging and missing, so be it.

One thing to note, however: since strikeout data is unavailable prior to 1913, I'm just going to look at statistics from 1913-2007, as I did with the SO/PA post a few days ago. It shouldn't have a big effect on the list of the top players since hardly anyone was hitting home runs prior to 1913, but the bottom of the list would be skewed badly by including the pre-1913 hitters.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
2	Adam Dunn	4098	1092	675	238	.4893
3	Jim Thome	8427	2043	1459	507	.4757
4	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
5	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
6	Pat Burrell	4743	1137	683	218	.4297
7	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
8	Brad Wilkerson	3444	879	457	118	.4222
9	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
10	Troy Glaus	5203	1165	701	277	.4119
11	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
12	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
13	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
14	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
15	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
16	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
17	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
18	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
19	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
20	Jim Edmonds	7307	1587	919	362	.3925

It's crazy to think that almost half the plate appearances of guys like Dunn, and Thome are ones during which the defense can rest.

Fewest Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1377	Emil Verban	3110	74	108	1	.0588
1376	Stuffy McInnis	7325	189	297	13	.0681
1375	Lloyd Waner	8326	173	420	27	.0745
1374	Eddie Brown	3126	109	127	16	.0806
1373	Homer Summa	3318	88	166	18	.0820
1372	Don Mueller	4594	146	167	65	.0823
1371	Charlie Deal	3091	121	126	11	.0835
1370	Ivy Olson	5498	222	230	12	.0844
1369	Everett Scott	6373	282	243	20	.0855
1368	Burgess Whitehead	3562	138	150	17	.0856
1367	Johnny Cooney	3675	107	208	2	.0863
1366	Buddy Hassett	3807	116	209	12	.0885
1365	George Cutshaw	5808	226	269	25	.0895
1364	Hughie Critz	6415	257	289	38	.0910
1363	Jimmy Brown	3832	110	231	9	.0913
1362	Felix Millan	6325	242	318	22	.0920
1361	Bobby Richardson	5783	243	262	34	.0932
1360	Art Fletcher	4966	283	152	30	.0936
1359	Nellie Fox	10349	216	719	35	.0937
1358	Glenn Beckert	5572	243	260	22	.0942

A rare day indeed saw Nellie Fox not put the ball in play.

Take Your Base

Yesterday I posted about the highest and lowest career strikeout rates in baseball history (at least since 1913). Today I want to look at the other thing a pitcher can do to a batter: give him a base on balls. Walks have been recorded for batters since the beginning of baseball history, but I'm only to look at players since 1901 because of the change in playing rules during the nineteenth century. As with yesterday, players on the list must have 3000 or more career plate apperances; any stats before 1901 are not counted.

Most Career BB/PA, 1901-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	BB	BB/PA
1	Ted Williams	9791	2021	.206
2	Barry Bonds	12606	2558	.203
3	Max Bishop	5776	1153	.200
4	Babe Ruth	10616	2062	.194
5	Ferris Fain	4904	904	.184
6	Eddie Stanky	5435	996	.183
7	Roy Cullenbine	4787	853	.178
8	Gene Tenace	5525	984	.178
9	Eddie Yost	9175	1614	.176
10	Mickey Mantle	9909	1733	.175
11	Jim Thome	8427	1459	.173
12	Mark McGwire	7660	1317	.172
13	Eddie Lake	3199	546	.171
14	Charlie Keller	4604	784	.170
15	Frank Thomas	9785	1628	.166
16	Mickey Tettleton	5745	949	.165
17	Adam Dunn	4098	675	.165
18	Joe Morgan	11329	1865	.165
19	Rickey Henderson	13346	2190	.164
20	Earl Torgeson	6037	980	.162

Fewest Career BB/PA, 1901-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	BB	BB/PA
1	Bill Bergen	9791	88	.027
2	Jesus Alou	4577	138	.030
3	Deivi Cruz	4375	132	.030
4	George Stovall	5596	172	.031
5	Hobe Ferris	5111	161	.032
6	Damaso Garcia	4124	130	.032
7	Shawon Dunston	6276	203	.032
8	Tommy Corcoran	3117	102	.033
9	Bill Killefer	3400	113	.033
10	Ozzie Guillen	7133	239	.034
11	Art Fletcher	6039	203	.034
12	Otto Miller	3049	104	.034
13	Hal Lanier	3940	136	.035
14	Buck Weaver	5292	183	.035
15	Emil Verban	3110	108	.035
16	Hal Chase	7939	276	.035
17	Ken Reitz	5079	184	.036
18	Red Dooin	4271	155	.036
19	Don Mueller	4594	167	.036
20	Hy Myers	5316	195	.037

Most IBB in a Season, No Home Runs

Partly as a result of the unprecedented numbers of intentional walks drawn by Barry Bonds in his record-setting home run seasons, the intentional walk has become even more inextricably linked with home run hitters. This isn't the only role the intentional base on balls has played throughout baseball history, however. Sometimes a manager will order an intentional walk in order to bring the opponent's pitcher to the plate or to set up a double play. In any case, the following players were not intentionally walked for their home run potential, that's for sure.

Most Intentional Walks with No Home Runs in a Single Season Since 1955*

Rank	Name	Year	IBB	OPS
1	Don Kessinger	1973	18	.637
2	Doug Flynn	1980	14	.600
3	Ozzie Smith	1986	13	.709
4	Jose Lind	1992	10	.544
5	Tim Flannery	1982	10	.647
	Bill Almon	1978	10	.617
	Doug Flynn	1978	10	.566
	Roger Metzger	1976	9	.556
9	Steve Jeltz	1986	9	.582
	Tony Scott	1980	9	.619
	Dave Bergman	1978	9	.630
	Manny Mota	1973	9	.733
	Rod Carew	1972	9	.748
	Jake Gibbs	1969	9	.577
	Dal Maxvill	1966	9	.606
	Woody Woodward	1966	8	.650
17	Brent Mayne	2004	8	.577
	Bip Roberts	1996	8	.688
	Steve Jeltz	1988	8	.532
	Tom Nieto	1985	8	.586
	Doug Flynn	1983	8	.561
	Ted Sizemore	1978	8	.524
	Larry Bowa	1973	8	.501
	Jim Gosger	1968	8	.462
	Eddie Kasko	1964	8	.585
	Maury Wills	1960	8	.673

Hitters with 80+ More BB Than K in a Season Since 1901

Contact hitters don't strike out often. Patient hitters are adept at drawing walks. A hitter who can combine both skills is going to be pretty valuable. Of course, being very good at both is pretty rare. Below are the only 44 times since 1901 that a hitter has drawn 80+ more walks than strikeouts in a single season. Why did I use eighty and not some other number? Simply because it didn't make the list too long.

I find it interesting that, given the fact Joe Sewell didn't even reach double digits in strikeouts in most seasons of his career, the only time he shows up is one year he did. Lou Boudreau's 1948 season is pretty impressive. Also, given the number of guys on the list that played in the late forties, perhaps it's no wonder the league K:BB ratio dipped so much as I alluded to yesterday (or perhaps it just made it easier for them to make the list).

The fact Barry Bonds leads the list by so much brings up a good point: there are no IBB numbers for most of the players on the list on Baseball-Reference.com (I believe 1955 is when they start). Therefore I didn't want to take Bonds off the list without knowing if Williams would be similarly affected, so I just left it. If you're such a threat teams want to walk you instead of trying to strike you out, that's its own reward I suppose. Bonds just missed placing on the list again in 2007 with 132 free passes against 54 strikeouts. No one else was even close.

Name	Year	BB	SO	BB-K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Barry Bonds	2004	232	41	191	.362	.609	.812	1.422
Barry Bonds	2002	198	47	151	.370	.582	.799	1.381
Ted Williams	1941	147	27	120	.406	.553	.735	1.287
Ted Williams	1947	162	47	115	.343	.499	.634	1.133
Ted Williams	1949	162	48	114	.343	.490	.650	1.141
Ted Williams	1946	156	44	112	.342	.497	.667	1.164
Ferris Fain	1950	133	26	107	.282	.430	.402	.832
Eddie Stanky	1945	148	42	106	.258	.417	.333	.751
Ted Williams	1954	136	32	104	.345	.513	.635	1.148
Ted Williams	1951	144	45	99	.318	.464	.556	1.019
Arky Vaughan	1936	118	21	97	.335	.453	.474	.927
Luke Appling	1949	121	24	97	.301	.439	.394	.833
Lu Blue	1929	126	32	94	.293	.422	.429	.852
Lou Gehrig	1935	132	38	94	.329	.466	.583	1.049
Ted Williams	1942	145	51	94	.356	.499	.648	1.147
Eddie Stanky	1950	144	50	94	.300	.460	.412	.872
Eddie Collins	1915	119	27	92	.332	.460	.436	.896
Charlie Gehringer	1938	113	21	92	.306	.425	.486	.911
Wade Boggs	1988	125	34	91	.366	.476	.490	.965
Johnny Evers	1910	108	18	90	.263	.413	.321	.734
Barry Bonds	2003	148	58	90	.341	.529	.749	1.278
Jim Sheckard	1911	147	58	89	.276	.434	.388	.822
Lou Boudreau	1948	98	9	89	.355	.453	.534	.987
Augie Galan	1945	114	27	87	.307	.423	.441	.864
Elmer Valo	1949	119	32	87	.283	.413	.404	.817
Joe Sewell	1923	98	12	86	.353	.456	.479	.935
Roy Cullenbine	1947	137	51	86	.224	.401	.422	.823
Ted Williams	1948	126	41	85	.369	.497	.615	1.112
Ferris Fain	1949	136	51	85	.263	.415	.339	.754
Elmer Valo	1952	101	16	85	.281	.432	.407	.839
Tris Speaker	1920	97	13	84	.388	.483	.562	1.045
Max Bishop	1929	128	44	84	.232	.398	.316	.713
Mickey Cochrane	1933	106	22	84	.322	.459	.515	.974
Lou Gehrig	1936	130	46	84	.354	.478	.696	1.174
Charlie Gehringer	1940	101	17	84	.313	.428	.447	.875
Barry Bonds	2001	177	93	84	.328	.515	.863	1.379
Arky Vaughan	1938	104	21	83	.322	.433	.444	.876
Luke Appling	1935	122	40	82	.307	.437	.389	.826
Mickey Cochrane	1935	96	15	81	.319	.452	.450	.902
Eddie Stanky	1946	137	56	81	.273	.436	.352	.788
Johnny Pesky	1949	100	19	81	.306	.408	.384	.792
Ralph Kiner	1951	137	57	80	.309	.452	.627	1.079
Ferris Fain	1953	108	28	80	.256	.405	.345	.750
Joe Morgan	1975	132	52	80	.327	.466	.508	.974

Losing with a Walk Differential of >= 9

The Chicago Cubs lost 5-4 in extra innings to the Houston Astros last night. I was reading a Cubs blog this morning and came across an interesting question: "What about having a walk differential of +9 and losing a game? How often does that occur?"

The inspiration for that query, of course, was the fact the Cubs had ten walks in the game and the Astros had one (given up to the batter who eventually scored the winning run). Given my compulsion to look up answers to strange questions like that, I tracked down what I think is the most recent such game.

On April 26, 2006, the New York Yankees were defeated by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 10 innings, amassing six hits and fourteen walks while only giving up seven hits and five walks of their own. I find it interesting that with twenty baserunners throughout the game and only two double plays recorded by Tampa Bay, the Yankees only managed to plate two runners (on a home run, no less). They left sixteen baserunners stranded.

Also notable: since 1957, it has only happened fifty-four times that a team has had at least twenty baserunners and two or fewer runs scored in the same game. It was only the fourth time since 2000 it happened.

NOTE: That's what I found looking through the B-R PI's Team Batting and Team Pitching Game Finders with walks set to different numbers. If you find a more recent example, let me know!

Ridiculously Low Walk Rates

Given the upswing in popularity of stats like on-base percentage over recent years, I thought it'd be fun to look at guys for whom a base on balls was anathema, or worse.

Only six players have managed to take only one walk in 150+ PA in a single season:

Name	Year	PA
Andy Kosco	1970	228
Kim Batiste	1994	214
Doc Powers	1906	192
Al Cuccinello	1935	173
Walter Schmidt	1922	156
Gus Getz	1909	153

Only nine players have ever managed to amass more than 200 PA in a single season with only two bases on balls:

Name	Year	PA
Whitey Alperman	1909	442
Rob Picciolo	1980	281
Shawon Dunston	1999	255
Jack Slattery	1903	228
Oscar Azocar	1990	218
Gus Getz	1914	218
Ivan Murrell	1973	216
Todd Greene	2003	210
Boss Schmidt	1910	207

Five guys have taken three walks in over 250+ PA:

Name	Year	PA
Ossee Schreckengost	1905	429
Rob Picciolo	1979	363
John Warner	1901	305
Pat Hynes	1904	264
Tommy Thevenow	1933	262

Three players took four walks in 300+ PA: Alfredo Griffin in 441 PA in 1984, Bill Killefer in 375 PA in 1913, and Art Hoelskoetter in 330 PA in 1906.

Rounding out the list of guys with five or less walks, three players have taken five walks in 350+ PA: Hal Lanier had 401 PA in 1964, Boss Schmidt had 371 in 1907, and Ellis Valentine did it in 350 PA in 1982. Ivan Rodriguez currently has 5 BB in 2007 in 396 PA.

Let's look at the worst walk rates in those tables.

Name	Year	PA per BB
Andy Kosco	1970	228
Whitey Alperman	1909	221
Kim Batiste	1994	214
Doc Powers	1906	192
Al Cuccinello	1935	173

What about those pesky folks with a walk rate of zero? Here's the eight seasons of over 100 PA with no bases on balls:

1. Craig Robinson, 1973, 148
2. Alejandro Sanchez, 1985, 133
3. Ernie Bowman, 1963, 131
4. Rob Picciolo, 1984, 128
5. Harry Bemis, 1909, 126
6. Champ Osteen, 1908, 115
7. Bert Adams, 1917, 111
8. Gus Getz, 1916, 102

Finally, what about those guys who couldn't help but have a walk rate over zero? Here's the top 5 seasons by PA with the only walks being of the intentional variety:

1. Jose Morales, 1976, 165 (3 IBB)
   
2. Nelson Santovenia, 1991, 102 (2 IBB)
   
3. Junior Noboa, 1991, 96
4. Felix Millan, 1966, 93 (2 IBB)
   
5. Leo Sutherland, 1980, 92

Walking a pitcher

One thing that's a cause of endless frustration to fans is when an opposing team's pitcher walks at the plate. This happened to the Brewers tonight, as Jeff Suppan walked Wandy Rodriguez and gave up a one-run double to Craig Biggio. Here's the 2007 season numbers for the player batting immediately after a pitcher walks:

133 PA, 130 AB, 30 H, 9 BB, 2 HBP, 2 SH, 1 SF, 31 RBI (34 total runs scored), 15% of baserunners scored, .238 AVG, .321 OBP

It's a pretty meaningless sample, but I would have figured batters hit a little better than .238/.321 immediately following a pitcher walking.