Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Three True Outcomes per Plate Apperance

Baseball Prospectus has an article (well, many of them) about the "Three True Outcomes" (TTO) that you can read here. The long and short of it is that strikeouts, walks, and home runs are "true outcomes" in the sense that fielders don't have to get involved at all in the play (Jose Canseco excepted). That article details hitters from 2003 and normalizes the rates of each statistic to determine the guys who fit the mold of TTO guys perfectly, but I just want to put the raw career numbers out there. If a guy is good enough to draw a fantastically high number of walks or lasts forever swinging and missing, so be it.

One thing to note, however: since strikeout data is unavailable prior to 1913, I'm just going to look at statistics from 1913-2007, as I did with the SO/PA post a few days ago. It shouldn't have a big effect on the list of the top players since hardly anyone was hitting home runs prior to 1913, but the bottom of the list would be skewed badly by including the pre-1913 hitters.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

1Rob Deer45121409575230.4907
2Adam Dunn40981092675238.4893
3Jim Thome842720431459507.4757
4Mark McGwire766015961317583.4564
5Mickey Tettleton57451307949245.4353
6Pat Burrell47431137683218.4297
7Jay Buhner59271406792310.4231
8Brad Wilkerson3444879457118.4222
9Gorman Thomas54861339697268.4200
10Troy Glaus52031165701277.4119
11Danny Tartabull58421362768262.4094
12Don Lock3116776373122.4079
13Jose Canseco81291942906462.4072
14Mickey Mantle990917101733536.4016
15Reggie Jackson1141625971375563.3972
16Darryl Strawberry63261352816335.3957
17Gene Tenace5525998984201.3951
18Pete Incaviglia46771277360206.3941
19Eric Davis61471398740282.3937
20Jim Edmonds73071587919362.3925

It's crazy to think that almost half the plate appearances of guys like Dunn, and Thome are ones during which the defense can rest.

Fewest Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

1377Emil Verban3110741081.0588
1376Stuffy McInnis732518929713.0681
1375Lloyd Waner832617342027.0745
1374Eddie Brown312610912716.0806
1373Homer Summa33188816618.0820
1372Don Mueller459414616765.0823
1371Charlie Deal309112112611.0835
1370Ivy Olson549822223012.0844
1369Everett Scott637328224320.0855
1368Burgess Whitehead356213815017.0856
1367Johnny Cooney36751072082.0863
1366Buddy Hassett380711620912.0885
1365George Cutshaw580822626925.0895
1364Hughie Critz641525728938.0910
1363Jimmy Brown38321102319.0913
1362Felix Millan632524231822.0920
1361Bobby Richardson578324326234.0932
1360Art Fletcher496628315230.0936
1359Nellie Fox1034921671935.0937
1358Glenn Beckert557224326022.0942

A rare day indeed saw Nellie Fox not put the ball in play.


Will said...

What about Russ Branyan? He's gotta be over 50% at this point.

john said...

Russell Branyan is the king of the three true outcomes. Prior to this season (btw when he was finally given a shot and he's making the most of it). Rusty was head and shoulders above the field with a TTO of 53.1% This year he has been at a 47.5% clip, maintaining his career TTO of 52.3% Russell Branyan is also an exceptional fielder, one of the greatest unnoticed players of all time.

goyisherebbe said...

This is true pedantry, but if baseball statistical nerds can't be pedantic, who can? HBP should be added to BB as part of TTO.