Sunday, January 6, 2008

Expanding on Yesterday's Post

I wanted to see what would happen if every team had scored their baserunners at both a league average clip and at the same rate the league-leading Colorado Rockies. Since I doubt there's any real way for a team to improve their numbers from year to year, all this is pointless and hypothetical, but it's fun to think about anyway.

First, I want to figure out the number of runs each team would have gained or lost by driving in 30.11% of their baserunners, the league average rate. Then, for fun, we can add these runs to the number the teams actually scored to see how their Pythagorean Winning Percentage and record are affected. I sorted the following table by each team's new Pythagorean Winning Percentage (remember Colorado and San Diego played 163 games). The final column shows how much each team's Pythagorean record changed from that derived from their actual runs scored.

TeamRSRARS ChangeAdj. RSAdj. Pythag. Win %Adj. Pythag. W-LPythag. Win Change
San Diego741666-1740.54889-740
Chicago751690-1751.53987-750
Colorado820758-40820.53687-76-4
Atlanta789733-21789.53486-76-2
New York789750-15789.52385-77-1
Philadelphia861821-31861.52285-77-2
Milwaukee792776-9792.50983-790
Los Angeles7377272737.50682-800
Arizona7217329721.49380-821
San Francisco70372020703.48979-832
Cincinnati79485311794.46776-861
Houston75481331754.46675-873
Washington70178328701.45073-893
St. Louis74282917742.44973-892
Florida7948914794.44772-900
Pittsburgh721846-3721.42769-93-1

In the next table, I want to see what would have happened if every team had knocked in baserunners at the same rate the Rockies did: 31.96%. Since the league runs scored obviously goes up, I decided to distribute the increase in runs scored evenly across all sixteen teams' runs allowed. This perhaps isn't very fair to every team since all teams don't play each other the same number of times but this is already so hypothetical it doesn't matter all that much. :)

TeamRSRARS ChangeAdj. RSAdj. RAAdj. PythagW%Adj. PythagW-LPythag. Win Change
San Diego74166634775703.54489-740
Chicago75269036788727.53787-750
Colorado8607580860795.53687-76-4
Atlanta81073316826770.53286-76-2
New York80475022826787.52285-77-1
Philadelphia8928218900858.52285-77-2
Milwaukee80177625826813.50782-80-1
Los Angeles73572739774764.50682-800
Arizona71273243755769.49280-821
San Francisco68372056739757.48979-832
Cincinnati78385348831890.46976-861
Houston72381367790850.46776-864
St. Louis72582954779866.45273-892
Washington67378364737820.45173-893
Florida79089141831928.45073-891
Pittsburgh72484632756883.42970-920

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