Double or Nothing?

File this under "Quirky." Through 29 starts this season, Detroit Tigers lefthander Kenny Rogers has been involved in eleven double plays. That's more than he's ever had in one season. His previous high was 7 in 2005, one of the five years in which he won a Gold Glove.

It's not unheard of for a pitcher to reach double digits in double plays. Rogers is the fifth pitcher since 2001 to have 10 or more in a season. The other four were Kirk Rueter (11, 2001), Javier Vazquez (10, 2001), Livan Hernandez (10, 2004), and Jon Garland (10, 2006). Those numbers aren't league records, but Rueter came close: the AL record is 15 by Bob Lemon in 1953 and the NL record is 12, shared between Curt Davis in 1934 and Randy Jones in 1976. You can find more pitcher double play records here. Even with a few starts to go, I doubt an ailing Rogers will get the four double plays necessary to tie the AL record.

It's kind of strange to look at the rest of the 2008 leaderboard for double plays by pitchers. CC Sabathia and Edwin Jackson are tied for second...with five. Granted there's still a few starts left for those guys, but it's weird to see such a gap between the leader and second place. The last time there was any real gap between first and second place was 2004, when Brandon Webb finished three double plays behind Livan Hernandez.

So how is Kenny Rogers getting involved in all these double plays? Curiously, looking at Rogers' THT page tells us that his ground ball percentage has actually dropped from the past couple seasons. However, looking at the play-by-play of each game in which Rogers has a DP tells us that ten of the eleven are ground ball double plays (the other was a liner back to the mound and a toss to first). So maybe he's just been lucky in that more of the ground balls he's induced have come back to him in double play situations.

The other four pitchers with ten double plays in a season since 2001 also were out of line with their career numbers. Kirk Rueter had 11 in '01 but never more than six in any other season. The closest Javier Vazquez has come to reaching double digits again is six (he has one this year). Jon Garland's 10 in 2006 was way out there, as he's never been over four in any other year (he has three this season). Durable veteran Livan Hernandez has reached seven twice in addition to his 10 in 2004 (none this year). I guess Rogers' high double play total is also probably attributable to luck more than anything else.

If nothing else, there's a reason to watch Rogers' final starts of 2008. He just might find himself in more double play situations and get closer to the AL record.

The Other 20/20 Club

When you hear about the 20/20 club in baseball, it generally refers to players with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases in the same season. With less than a quarter of the season to go, talk about players who might be in the club by the end of the season starts becoming more and more prevalent. Since 2000, each season has seen between 4 (in 2003) and 15 (in 2001) members of the 20/20 club each year. Last season, fourteen players had 20+ HR and 20+ SB.

So far this season, Brandon Phillips (20 HR/22 SB), Hanley Ramirez (27/28), and Grady Sizemore (28/30) are already past the 20/20 mark. Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Ian Kinsler, and Alex Rodriguez are above fifteen in each category this year, so it's likely at least some more players will make it in the final six weeks of the year.

Now that the usual one is out of the way, I want to talk about another type of 20/20 club. I think of it as a kind of reverse 20/20 club, in a way. I'm talking about players with 20+ GIDP and 20+ errors in the same season. Grounding into a double play is kind of an anti-home run because not only are you costing the team yourself as a potential run-scorer, you are also taking away another potential run-scorer who was already on the bases. Similarly, an error is kind of like an anti-stolen base because rather than giving your team an extra base, you've given your opponent one.

Unfortunately, it's not possible to find all members of the other 20/20 club throughout baseball history. Errors have been recorded way back past 1901, but GIDP have only been recorded in the National League since 1933 and in the American League since 1939. Regardless, there has been a steadily growing membership (76 different players with 101 seasons through 2007) in the group. In the 75 seasons between 1933-2007, a full 25 had no new members of the GIDP & E club, 22 had one member join, 17 had two, 7 had three, 3 had four, and two seasons had six different players reach the 20/20 marks.

Getting to twenty GIDP in a year isn't easy, but it's also not really position-specific. Granted, a speedy, centerfielder type will be harder to double up, but most players with 500-600 plate appearances can potentially reach 20 GIDP. It's in the errors category that a lot of guys are weeded out. To reach twenty errors, you pretty much have to be an infielder. No regular outfielders are in the group, and only one regular catcher and two regular first basemen are in my 20/20 club. Some players may have had an error committed in the outfield or at first base help them reach 20 errors, but most of the time they played second, short, or third. This really isn't a surprise, since those positions get the most chances to make both fielding and throwing errors.

So who are the members of the dubious 20/20 club? I've listed them below alphabetically, with the season(s) they got into the club, as well as their team, the positions at which they committed errors (in order of errors made), and their GIDP and error totals.

20+ GIDP & 20+ E in the Same Season, 1933-2007

Name	Year	Team	Position(s)	GIDP	E
Dick Allen	1971	LAD	3B/LF/1B	23	21
Luis Aparicio	1949	CHW	SS	23	26
Tony Batista	2003	BAL	3B	20	20
Buddy Bell	1984 1985	TEX TEX/CIN	3B 3B	21 24	20 25
David Bell	2005	PHI	3B	24	21
Jimmy Bloodworth	1943	DET	2B	29	21
Lou Boudreau	1940	CLE	SS	23	24
Ken Boyer	1963 1964	STL STL	3B 3B	20 22	34 24
Ed Brinkman	1973	DET	SS	22	24
Hubie Brooks	1985	MON	SS	20	28
Rick Burleson	1980	BOS	SS	24	22
Ed Busch	1944	PHA	SS/2B	20	41
Jorge Cantu	2005	TBD	2B/3B	24	21
Vinny Castilla	1996	COL	3B	20	20
Ed Charles	1963	KCA	3B	21	25
Dick Cole	1954	PIT	SS/3B/2B	20	28
Dave Concepcion	1974 1985	CIN CIN	SS SS	20 23	30 24
Joe Cronin	1941	BOS	SS/3B	20	27
Babe Dahlgren	1944	PIT	1B	20	20
Sam Dente	1950	WSH	SS/2B	25	34
Bob Dillinger	1950	PHA/PIT	3B	20	20
Chico Fernandez	1957	PHI	SS	21	26
Julio Franco	1983 1984 1985	CLE CLE CLE	SS SS SS	21 23 26	28 36 35
Nomar Garciaparra	1998	BOS	SS	20	25
Mike Goliat	1950	PHI	2B	20	21
Joe Gordon	1942	NYY	2B	22	28
Dick Groat	1955 1958 1959 1961 1966	PIT PIT PIT PIT PHI	SS SS SS SS SS/3B	20 21 21 22 20	32 20 29 32 20
Granny Hamner	1949 1951 1957	PHI PHI PHI	SS SS 2B	20 20 23	32 31 21
Ron Hansen	1965	CHW	SS	21	26
Jim Ray Hart	1966	SFG	3B/LF	23	26
Charlie Hayes	1993	COL	3B	25	20
Billy Herman	1933 1939	CHC CHC	2B 2B	21 24	45 29
Pinky Higgins	1941 1942	DET DET	3B 3B	20 21	26 30
Billy Hitchcock	1950	PHA	2B/SS	30	22
Butch Hobson	1979	BOS	3B	23	25
Johnny Hudson	1938	BRO	2B	20	27
Randy Jackson	1951 1953	CHC CHC	3B 3B	21 20	24 22
Gregg Jefferies	1992	KCR	3B	24	26
Billy Johnson	1948	NYY	3B	22	20
Willie Jones	1949	PHI	3B	20	27
Billy Jurges	1938 1939	CHC NYG	SS SS	22 26	34 28
George Kell	1944	PHA	3B	28	20
Buddy Kerr	1950	BSN	SS	21	28
Harmon Killebrew	1970	MIN	3B/1B	28	20
Don Kolloway	1947	CHW	2B/3B/1B	22	27
Hal Lanier	1970	SFG	SS	20	22
Sam Leslie	1933	NYG/BRO	1B	20	21
Johnny Lipon	1950	DET	SS	20	33
Hector Lopez	1958	KCA	2B/3B	23	21
Frank Malzone	1958 1960	BOS BOS	3B 3B	21 20	27 26
Bill Mazeroski	1964	PIT	2B	21	23
Bill Melton	1973	CHW	3B	20	23
Cass Michaels	1949	CHW	2B	20	22
Willie Montanez	1976	SFG/ATL	1B	26	22
Jo-Jo Morrissey	1933	CIN	2B/SS/3B	21	40
Thurman Munson	1975	NYY	C	23	23
Marty Perez	1972	ATL	SS	21	27
Tony Perez	1969	CIN	3B	20	32
Aramis Ramirez	2003	PIT/CHC	3B	21	33
Rafael Ramirez	1985	ATL	SS	21	32
Pee Wee Reese	1954 1955	BRO BRO	SS SS	20 22	25 23
Cal Ripken, Jr.	1983 1985	BAL BAL	SS SS	24 32	25 26
Alex Rodriguez	2006	NYY	3B	22	24
Bill Russell	1977 1979	LAD LAD	SS SS	23 20	29 30
Ron Santo	1961 1969 1973	CHC CHC CHC	3B 3B 3B	25 21 27	31 27 20
George Scott	1977	BOS	1B	24	24
Vern Stephens	1948	BOS	SS	25	24
Dick Stuart	1961 1963	PIT BOS	1B 1B	22 24	21 29
Pete Suder	1941 1942	PHA PHA	3B/SS SS/3B/2B	23 20	21 22
Miguel Tejada	2004 2005	BAL BAL	SS SS	24 26	24 22
Felix Torres	1963	LAA	3B/1B	20	23
Gil Torres	1944	WSH	3B/1B/2B	20	24
John Valentin	1997	BOS	2B/3B	21	22
Mickey Witek	1943	NYG	2B	21	31
Todd Zeile	1999 2002	TEX COL	3B 3B	20 27	25 21
Ryan Zimmerman	2007	WSN	3B	26	23

So who's got a chance to join this list in 2008? So far, two players have reached the 20 error plateau: Arizona 3B Mark Reynolds and Florida SS Hanley Ramirez. However, Reynolds is at eight GIDP and Ramirez is at five, so it's all but impossible for them to make it. In fact, there is only one player this year with what I consider a realistic shot at making it onto the list. The Seattle shortstop has grounded into fifteen double plays and committed eighteen errors. He's the only 15/15 player so far this year.

Along with checking Daniel Cabrera's HBP total after every start, it might be worth looking to see what Betancourt's done lately for the rest of the year.

Longest GIDP Streaks

I know I've kind of gone crazy with double play posts recently but bear with me. While I've had some dubious results using the Streak Finder part of the Baseball-Reference Play Index in the past, I think this is pretty legitimate. The tool searches from 1957 through 2007, so these are the players with one or more GIDP in five or more consecutive games over the last fifty-one seasons.

1. Mike Lowell, 5 games, 7/28/2004 to 8/3/2004
2. Nomar Garciaparra, 5 games, 6/4/1998 to 6/8/1998
3. Ken Singleton, 5 games, 8/14/1982 to 8/20/1982
4. Jim Rice, 5 games, 7/2/1982 to 7/5/1982 (Game 2)
5. Joe Lis, 5 games, 9/8/1973 to 9/16/1973

According to the MLB Rulebook:

A consecutive-game hitting streak shall not be terminated if all the player's plate appearances (one or more) results in a base on balls, hit batsman, defensive interference or a sacrifice bunt. The streak shall terminate if the player has a sacrifice fly and no hit. The player's individual consecutive-game hitting streak shall be determined by the consecutive games in which the player appears and is not determined by his club's games.

If you apply the same standard to GIDP streaks, Lou Piniella in 1980 had a five game streak from 9/11 to 9/17 even though he drew a pinch-hit intentional walk in the game on September 12 of that year. Greg Norton also would hold the record streak since 1957 with six consecutive games from 9/12/1998 to 9/20/1998 with a pinch hit base on balls in between on September 14.

More on 2007 GIDP

As if the small samples in the last post weren't enough, I want to break things down further and look at how players did in 0-out and 1-out double play situations.

Most 0-Out DPPA Between GIDP Among Title Qualifiers

1. Reggie Willits, ∞ (0 in 28)
2. Kenny Lofton, ∞ (0 in 27)
3. Akinori Iwamura, ∞ (0 in 27)
   
4. Juan Pierre, 73.0 (1 in 73)
5. Nick Punto, 57.0 (1 in 57)
6. Corey Patterson, 46.0 (1 in 46)
7. Craig Biggio, 31.0 (1 in 31)
8. Hanley Ramirez, 28.0 (1 in 28)
9. Carlos Pena, 24.5 (2 in 49)
10. Carlos Delgado, 24.0 (2 in 48)

Fewest 0-Out DPPA Between GIDP Among Title Qualifiers

1. Miguel Tejada, 3.8 (11 in 42)
2. A.J. Pierzynski, 3.9 (10 in 39)
3. Melvin Mora, 4.3 (12 in 51)
4. Brandon Phillips, 4.6 (14 in 65)
5. Paul Konerko, 4.7 (9 in 42)
6. Brian McCann, 4.7 (10 in 47)
7. Ray Durham, 4.9 (10 in 49)
8. Jose Bautista, 5.0 (8 in 40)
9. Torii Hunter, 5.0 (10 in 50)
10. Dmitri Young, 5.0 (7 in 35)

Most 1-Out DPPA Between GIDP Among Title Qualifiers

1. Johnny Damon, ∞ (0 in 53)
2. Edwin Encarnacion, 64.0 (1 in 64)
3. Grady Sizemore, 55.0 (1 in 55)
4. Corey Hart, 50.0 (1 in 50)
5. Julio Lugo, 47.0 (1 in 47)
6. Curtis Granderson, 43.0 (1 in 43)
7. Rickie Weeks, 40.0 (1 in 40)
8. Jack Cust, 35.0 (2 in 70)
9. Mark Teixeira, 33.0 (2 in 66)
10. Mike Cameron, 28.0 (2 in 56)

Fewest 1-Out DPPA Between GIDP Among Title Qualifiers

1. Orlando Hudson, 3.8 (17 in 65)
2. Kenji Johjima, 4.4 (17 in 75)
3. Manny Ramirez, 4.7 (16 in 75)
4. Ivan Rodriguez, 5.0 (11 in 55)
5. Brendan Harris, 5.2 (11 in 57)
6. Nick Markakis, 5.2 (16 in 83)
7. Jose Lopez, 5.5 (13 in 72)
8. Russell Martin, 5.5 (13 in 72)
9. Frank Thomas, 5.6 (10 in 56)
10. Carlos Lee, 5.6 (16 in 90)
    

Most and Least GIDP-Prone Hitters in 2007

Let's define a double play situation as runners on first, first and second, first and third or the bases loaded with zero or one outs. A hitter only comes up in a double play situation every so often. In Major League Baseball, the average hitter had the potential of grounding into a double play in 19.12% of his plate appearances. Below are the hitters that qualified for the batting title with the highest and lowest percentage of plate appearances in double play situations (DPPA).

Highest Percentage of DPPA among Title Qualifiers

1. David Ortiz, 180 of 667, 26.99%
2. Chipper Jones, 156 of 600, 26.00%
3. Robinson Cano, 172 of 669, 25.71%
4. Albert Pujols, 172 of 679, 25.33%
5. Bobby Abreu, 175 of 699, 25.04%
6. Mark Teahen, 152 of 608, 25.00%
7. Vladimir Guerrero, 162 of 660, 24.55%
8. Ken Griffey Jr., 152 of 623, 24.40%
9. Mike Lowell, 156 of 653, 23.89%
10. Jose Vidro, 149 of 625, 23.84%

Lowest Percentage of DPPA among Title Qualifiers

1. Jose Reyes, 88 of 765, 11.50%
2. Luis Castillo, 73 of 615, 11.87%
3. Curtis Granderson, 82 of 676, 12.13%
4. Rafael Furcal, 80 of 642, 12.46%
5. Grady Sizemore, 95 of 748, 12.70%
6. Craig Biggio, 71 of 555, 12.79%
7. Rickie Weeks, 65 of 506, 12.85%
8. Jimmy Rollins, 102 of 778, 13.11%
9. Kenny Lofton, 74 of 559, 13.24%
10. Brian Roberts, 95 of 716, 13.27%

No big surprises there as the list is populated by mainly leadoff hitters. As I noted in a previous post, it's hard for hitters at the top of the lineup to ground into double plays; they get at least one plate appearance per game guaranteed not to be a double play situation.

Though it's probably pretty much luck, some hitters were better than others at avoiding grounding into double plays when they came up to the plate. Here are the hitters with the most double play situation plate appearances between GIDP and the fewest double play situation plate appearances between GIDP. The MLB average was 9.1 DPPA between GIDP.

Most DPPA Between GIDP among Title Qualifiers

1. Akinori Iwamura, 37.5 (2 in 75)
2. Corey Patterson, 32.0 (3 in 96)
3. Grady Sizemore, 31.7 (3 in 95)
4. Curtis Granderson, 27.3 (3 in 82)
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 23.0 (6 in 138)
6. Stephen Drew, 22.0 (4 in 88)
7. Rickie Weeks, 21.7 (3 in 65)
8. Johnny Damon, 21.3 (4 in 85)
9. Edwin Encarnacion, 20.0 (5 in 100)
10. Chris B. Young, 18.4 (5 in 92)

Fewest DPPA Between GIDP among Title Qualifiers

1. Orlando Hudson, 4.7 (21 in 99)
2. Miguel Tejada, 5.1 (22 in 112)
3. A.J. Pierzynski, 5.2 (21 in 109)
4. Kenji Johjima, 5.2 (22 in 115)
5. Brian McCann, 5.3 (19 in 110)
6. Manny Ramirez, 5.4 (21 in 113)
7. Ivan Rodriguez, 5.5 (16 in 88)
8. Melvin Mora, 5.5 (22 in 121)
9. Carlos Lee, 5.6 (27 in 152)
10. Paul Konerko, 5.7 (21 in 120)

It seems kind of weird to see Orlando Hudson on top of the list. Like I said, the names on this list are probably there because of bad luck more than skill (or the lack of it).

Most Career GIDP by a Leadoff Hitter Since 1957

It's harder for the players occupying the first spot in a team's batting order to ground into a double play than anybody else. Logically this makes sense since at least once a game it is impossible for them to do it. Also, the leadoff man in a given batting order usually tends to be fast so it seems harder for the opposing team to turn a double play with him running to first. Even so, leadoff hitters still ground into double plays sometimes and, if they play enough, also can end up with some pretty high career GIDP totals.

The Baseball-Reference Play Index lets us look up all the double plays since 1957 that have been started by the hitter occupying his team's #1 spot in the lineup so it comes down to counting names. I've listed the players with 50 or more GIDP while in the leadoff spot with their number of career plate appearances batting first next to it. While it doesn't tell us much about their ability to avoid/ground into double plays, the plate appearances column does let us know how long it took a player to reach his career total; someone with a high total PA relative to the players around him might indicate someone with above-average luck (or teammates with low on-base skills). To help show that the last column is the number of plate appearances per GIDP.

Most Career GIDP While in the Leadoff Spot Since 1957

Rank	Name	GIDP	PA in Leadoff Spot	PA/GIDP
1	Rickey Henderson	171	13122	76.7
2	Pete Rose	158	10710	67.8
3	Eric Young	110	5748	52.3
4	Paul Molitor	103	7291	70.8
5	Shannon Stewart	92	5396	58.7
6	Kenny Lofton	88	7929	90.1
7	Chuck Knoblauch	87	5964	68.6
	Tony Taylor	87	5421	62.3
9	Luis Aparicio	86	5740	66.7
10	Tony Phillips	84	6489	77.3
11	Steve Sax	83	5028	60.6
	Wade Boggs	83	4361	52.5
13	Lou Brock	81	8653	106.8
14	Willie Randolph	78	4059	52.0
15	Tim Raines	76	6514	85.7
	Davey Lopes	76	4710	62.0
17	Maury Wills	74	6900	93.2
18	Ron LeFlore	72	4756	66.1
	Luis Polonia	72	4493	62.4
20	Horace Clarke	71	4679	65.9
21	Craig Biggio	70	7297	104.2
22	Bert Campaneris	68	6571	96.6
23	Al Bumbry	67	5177	77.3
24	Dave Cash	65	4415	67.9
25	Otis Nixon	63	5078	80.6
	Rick Burleson	63	2772	44.0
27	Dan Gladden	62	3662	59.1
28	David Eckstein	60	3942	65.7
29	Willie Wilson	59	6350	107.6
30	Don Kessinger	56	5276	94.2
31	Brett Butler	55	8432	153.3
	Pat Kelly	55	2909	52.9
33	Johnny Damon	54	6553	121.4
34	Marquis Grissom	53	3471	65.5
35	Fernando Vina	52	4040	77.7
	Luis Castillo	52	3980	76.5
37	Tommy Harper	51	5238	102.7
	Lou Whitaker	51	4268	83.7
39	Rafael Furcal	50	4680	93.6

The bolded players are still active. Brett Butler and Johnny Damon seem to be better than average at avoiding double plays; I'm not sure if it's because they don't have many career plate appearances in double play situations or if it's because they really are/were skilled at avoiding ground balls in those situations.

Most Stolen Bases, 20+ GIDP in a Single Season

Although the number of double plays a player grounds into is considered more a function of playing time than "skill," the general perception is that players that ground into a lot of double plays are slow. It seems to go against common sense that a player than steals a lot of bases can also ground into a lot of double plays. After all, if you're so speedy, why can't you beat out a relay throw? With that in mind, I give you today's list.

Most Stolen Bases with 20+ GIDP in a Single Season Since 1933*

Rank	Name	Year	SB	GIDP	Spot in Order - GIDP
1	Lance Johnson	1992	41	20	5 - 1, 6 - 5, 7 - 10, 8 - 4
	Dave Concepcion	1974	41	20	3 - 1, 5 - 3, 6 - 1, 7 - 10, 8 - 5
3	Vladimir Guerrero	2002	40	20	3 - 16, 4 - 4
4	Vladimir Guerrero	2001	40	24	3 - 19, 4 - 5
	Jackie Robinson	1949	37	22	Unavailable
	Carney Lansford	1989	37	21	2 - 8, 3 - 1, 5 - 3, 6 - 9
	Tony Gwynn	1986	37	20	2 - 19, 3 - 1
8	John Wathan	1982	36	26	2 - 14, 6 - 1, 7 - 2, 8 - 7, 9 - 2
	Barry Larkin	1996	36	20	2 - 2, 3 - 18
10	Edgar Renteria	2003	34	21	5 - 2, 6 - 9, 7 - 9
11	Willie Randolph	1979	33	23	1 - 8, 2 - 12, 8 - 3
12	Brandon Phillips	2007	32	26	2 - 5, 3 - 4, 4 - 16
	Ivan Calderon	1990	32	26	3 - 25, 4 - 1
	Julio Franco	1987	32	23	1 - 2, 2 - 9, 3 - 12
	Julio Franco	1983	32	21	1 - 1, 3 - 4, 6 - 3, 7 - 5, 8 - 6, 9 - 2
16	Hank Aaron	1968	28	21	3 - 21
17	Ivan Rodriguez	1999	25	31	2 - 17, 4 - 2, 5 - 1, 6 - 11
	Minnie Minoso	1953	25	23	Unavailable
	Chipper Jones	1999	25	20	3 - 20
20	Matt Lawton	2004	23	21	1 - 5, 3 - 12, 5 - 3, 6 - 1
	Kelly Gruber	1988	23	20	2 - 3, 4 - 2, 5 - 1, 6 - 6, 7 - 3, 8 - 5

*The National League has kept GIDP records since 1933. The American League began keeping records in 1939.

Hey, I guess I'm not alone...

I was looking around the Internet(s) today and found this intriguing li'l blog post. It's even less likely he will set the record as it's been a week and Zimmerman has failed to record one GIDP since the post (and it's hard to ground into those often), but I thought it was interesting nevertheless.

If that wasn't interesting enough, lo and behold, that blog has a link to this supremely esoteric site. I wonder if they called Rick Vanden Hurk's debut this year?

More on Double Play Rates

Last Monday I had a post about double play rates that you can read here. Today I've got some more data and charts and other fanciness.

I looked at the Baseball Reference Play Index's log of plate appearances and double plays from 1970 to 2006 to get the data; the B-R PI itself culls information from Retrosheet.

To recap, the opportune situations for double plays are:

0 Out, 1--
0 Out, 12-
0 Out, 1-3
0 Out, 123
1 Out, 1--
1 Out, 12-
1 Out, 1-3
1 Out, 123

Between 1970 and 2006, batters came up a staggering 1,129,812 times in those eight situations combined. A double play resulted 137,745 times, or at a 12.2% rate. Last Monday I noted that from 1997-2006 the rate was 12.0%; it would seem that's pretty close to standard. To wit, a chart:



(click to enlarge)

That chart shows the overall double play rate from 1970-2006, along with the rates of 0 out and 1 out situations. It looks pretty constant, though slightly elevated in the early 1980's. The overall rate is closer to the 1 out rate and with good reason: there were 657, 387 PA in those situations with 1 out compared to 473, 172 with nobody out. For the curious, the DP rate across all years with 0 out was 11.2% (52766/473172) while the rate with 1 out was 12.9% (85064/657387).

Before I get to three very hard to read charts, let's look at some relevant numbers in table form:

Outs:	0 Out			1 Out			Total
Bases Filled:	PA	DP	Rate	PA	DP	Rate	PA	DP	Rate
1--	335006	37946	11.3%	381111	48145	12.6%	716117	86091	12.0%
12-	82937	8815	10.6%	151064	19680	13.0%	234001	28495	12.2%
1-3	33575	3556	10.6%	69480	9280	13.4%	103055	12836	12.5%
123	21654	2449	11.3%	54985	7874	14.3%	76639	10323	13.5%
Total	473172	52766	11.2%	656640	84979	12.9%	1129812	137745	12.2%

Alright, with that in mind, here's three hard-to-read charts of each situation year-by-year. The order is Overall situations, 0 out situations, 1 out situations.



Finally, here's easier-to-read charts of each situation on the bases with DP rates for 0 out, 1 out, and both combined. Note 1977 on the Bases Loaded chart; that is the only time the 0 out DP rate ever exceeded the 1 out DP rate in any situation. The order of the charts is 1--, 12-, 1-3, 123.



I hope this wasn't too tedious.

Double Play Rates

I think this is pretty cool. First, let's assume the opportune double play situations are as follows:

0 Outs, Runner on 1st
0 Outs, Runners on 1st and 2nd
0 Outs, Runners on 1st and 3rd
0 Outs, Bases Loaded
1 Out, Runner on 1st
1 Out, Runners on 1st and 2nd
1 Out, Runners on 1st and 3rd
1 Out, Bases Loaded

Any other situations take some fluky plays to turn into DP's. Between April 1, 1997, and the end of 2006 batters strolled to the plate 354,609 times in those eight situations combined. They started a double play 42,436 times for a DP rate of 12.0%. The highest rate for a season in that stretch was 2005, where 4357/35121 = 12.4%. The lowest rate was 1999, where 4316/37003 = 11.7%

When is there the highest chance of starting a double play? Between 1997-2006, batters in a 1 out, bases loaded situation have had the highest rate of double plays. It's 2531/18173 = 13.9%. Every year was above 13.2% with the fluky exception of 2000, where the highest number of opportunities (1949) combined with the lowest number of DP's (231), to give an 11.9% rate.

The lowest chance of a double play came in the 0 out, 1st and 3rd situation. Batters there had 10010 PA but only 1013 DP's, resulting in a 10.1% rate. 2006 was the most providential year for offense, as only 82 double plays resulted from 970 plate appearances (8.5%). The worst year was 2000, where 11.3% was the DP rate (120/1066).

If you're scrolling through games and see one of those eight situations, impress your friends by saying there's a one in eight shot of a double play.