Three True Outcomes Per Plate Appearance, 1913-2009

An update to my Three True Outcomes (TTO) posts of January 2008 and July 2009. This version is complete through 2009. Once again, I have expanded the board by five more places.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2009, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Adam Dunn	5417	1433	913	316	.4914
2	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
3	Ryan Howard	3145	878	406	222	.4789
4	Jim Thome	9463	2313	1619	564	.4751
5	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
6	Carlos Pena	3713	973	495	202	.4498
7	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
8	Pat Burrell	5864	1392	842	265	.4262
9	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
10	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
11	Brad Wilkerson	3753	947	492	122	.4159
12	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
13	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
14	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
15	Troy Glaus	5872	1277	791	304	.4040
16	Jason Bay	3897	896	491	185	.4034
17	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
18	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
19	Nick Swisher	3119	665	439	133	.3966
20	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
21	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
22	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
23	Richie Sexson	5604	1313	588	306	.3938
24	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
25	Jim Edmonds	7307	1669	974	382	.3924
T-26	Cecil Fielder	5939	1316	693	319	.3920
T-26	Ray Lankford	6674	1550	828	238	.3920
28	Mike Schmidt	10062	1883	1507	548	.3914
29	Harmon Killebrew	9831	1699	1559	573	.3897
T-30	Sammy Sosa	9896	2306	929	609	.3884
T-30	Mike Cameron	7435	1798	825	265	.3884

If you carry it out beyond four decimal places the ties go away but, hey, I wanted an excuse to include another active player.

Russell Branyan is poised to jump atop the table with 176 more plate apperances. Through 2824 career PA, he has 946 strikeouts, 339 walks, and 164 home runs, good for a .5131 TTO/PA. If you add the necessary 176 TTO-less PA to get to 3000, he still places third with .4830. Not bad. Bo Jackson, of all people, pops up between Pete Incaviglia and Richie Sexson by the same method.

Another player who should make his way into the table next year is Brad Hawpe. He sits at .3983 after 2807 career plate appearances. If Tony Clark signs on somewhere next season, he might work his way back onto the list. He's currently 32nd at .3881.

SO > TB, Minimum 200 AB

This post details one of my personal favorite "teams." It's weird, comparing strikeouts to total bases, but whatever. I guess it springs out of the generalization that strikeouts are okay if you trade them for power. These players just couldn't break even.

The full list since 1901 can be found by following the above link. Andruw Jones and Tony Pena Jr. were new additions last season. The following players have a chance to join them in 2009:

Chris Davis, 128 K, 126 TB, 303 AB
Bill Hall, 95 K, 94 TB, 270 AB
Kelly Shoppach, 90 K, 91 TB, 235 AB
Koyie Hill, 67 K, 71 TB, 212 AB
Jeff Mathis, 64 K, 64 K, 198 AB

Jeff Mathis had as many strikeouts as total bases in 2008 as well. At least he's consistent.

Three True Outcomes per Plate Appearance, 1913-2008

An update to my Three True Outcomes (TTO) post of January 2008. As mentioned there, batting strikeouts weren't consistently recorded until 1913, so I start counting TTO from there.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Adam Dunn	4749	1256	797	278	.4908
2	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
3	Jim Thome	9029	2190	1550	541	.4741
4	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
5	Carlos Pena	3143	810	408	163	.4394
6	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
7	Pat Burrell	5388	1273	785	251	.4285
8	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
9	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
10	Brad Wilkerson	3753	947	492	122	.4159
11	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
12	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
13	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
14	Troy Glaus	5840	1269	788	304	.4043
15	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
16	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
17	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
18	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
19	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
20	Richie Sexson	5604	1313	588	306	.3938
21	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
22	Jason Bay	3259	734	397	149	.3928
23	Jim Edmonds	7307	1669	974	382	.3924
24	Cecil Fielder	5939	1316	693	319	.3920
25	Ray Lankford	6674	1550	828	238	.3920

Adam Dunn finally edged Rob Deer out of the top spot.

I expanded the board to the top 25 for this post. Carlos Pena joined the top 20 this year, as did Richie Sexson. Eric Davis and Jim Edmonds fell out of the top 25, but stay in the top 25 with a new addition between them. Reggie Jackson remains the only member of the club with 10000 PA, though Jim Thome is getting close. Mike Schmidt narrowly missed joining him with his .3914 TTO/PA in 10062 PA.

In case you were wondering, the lowest career TTO% table didn't change. Here is a simple list of the bottom ten active players, minimum 3000 PA:

• Juan Pierre, .1128
• Placido Polanco, .1316
• Cesar Izturis, .1424
• David Eckstein, .1462
• Paul Lo Duca, .1490
• Bengie Molina, .1561
• Ichiro Suzuki, .1651
• Jason Kendall, .1684
• Orlando Cabrera, .1687
• Miguel Cairo, .1690
  

SO > TB, Minimum 200 AB

My first real post on this blog had to do with one of my favorite topics: guys with more strikeouts than total bases. Since I never posted a follow-up with 2007 and 2008 players added, I figured now was a good time. The 2009 season is about one-quarter over, so it's also easy to look at guys who might join the list.

First up, the updated list of players with more strikeouts than total bases in 200 or more at bats:

Name	Year	Team	Position	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	TB	SO	OPS+
Bill Bergen	1911	BRO	C	227	.132	.183	.154	35	42	-4
Billy Consolo	1954	BOS	SS	242	.227	.324	.277	67	69	59
Billy Consolo	1959	BOS WSH	SS	216	.213	.331	.269	58	59	67
Ernie Fazio	1963	HOU	2B	228	.184	.273	.281	64	70	65
Jerry Kindall	1963	CLE	2B	234	.205	.266	.295	69	71	58
Dave Nicholson	1964	CHW	LF	294	.204	.329	.365	107	126	96
Chris Cannizzaro	1965	NYM	C	251	.183	.270	.231	58	60	46
Don Zimmer	1965	WSA	C	226	.199	.284	.252	57	59	55
Ray Oyler	1966	DET	SS	210	.171	.263	.252	53	62	48
Jerry Zimmerman	1967	MIN	C	234	.167	.243	.192	45	49	26
Ray Oyler	1968	DET	SS	215	.135	.213	.186	40	59	20
George Scott	1968	BOS	1B	350	.171	.236	.237	83	88	40
Dick Tracewski	1968	DET	SS	212	.156	.239	.236	50	51	43
Al Weis	1968	NYM	SS	274	.172	.234	.204	56	63	32
Darrel Chaney	1969	CIN	SS	209	.191	.278	.234	49	75	42
Ray Oyler	1969	SEP	SS	255	.165	.260	.267	68	80	49
Jim Mason	1975	NYY	SS	223	.152	.228	.211	47	49	27
John Hale	1978	SEA	RF	211	.171	.283	.265	56	64	56
Leroy Stanton	1978	SEA	LF	302	.182	.265	.248	75	80	47
Bobby Bonds	1980	STL	LF	231	.203	.305	.316	73	74	72
Tom Donohue	1980	CAL	C	218	.188	.216	.243	53	63	27
Reggie Jackson	1983	CAL	RF	397	.194	.290	.340	135	140	74
Gary Pettis	1987	CAL	CF	394	.208	.302	.259	102	124	53
Jody Davis	1989	ATL	C	231	.169	.246	.242	56	61	39
John Shelby	1989	LAD	CF	345	.183	.237	.229	79	92	36
Jeff Kunkel	1990	TEX	SS	200	.170	.221	.280	56	66	40
Rob Deer	1991	DET	RF	448	.179	.314	.386	173	175	92
Hensley Meulens	1991	NYY	LF	288	.222	.276	.319	92	97	65
Gary Pettis	1991	TEX	CF	282	.216	.341	.277	78	91	75
Andujar Cedeno	1992	HOU	SS	220	.173	.232	.277	61	71	47
Jack Clark	1992	BOS	DH	257	.210	.350	.311	80	87	82
Billy Ashley	1995	LAD	LF	215	.237	.320	.372	80	88	90
Benji Gil	1995	TEX	SS	415	.219	.266	.347	144	147	60
Kimera Bartee	1996	DET	CF	217	.253	.308	.304	66	77	57
Archi Cianfrocco	1997	SDP	1B	220	.245	.328	.355	78	80	85
Mark Johnson	1997	PIT	1B	219	.215	.345	.315	69	78	73
Ryan McGuire	1998	MON	1B	210	.186	.292	.243	51	55	46
Greg Vaughn	2002	TBD	LF	251	.163	.286	.315	79	82	60
Mark Bellhorn	2005	BOS NYY	2B	300	.210	.324	.357	107	112	81
Mark Bellhorn	2006	SDP	3B	253	.190	.285	.344	87	90	66
Ryan Langerhans	2007	ATL OAK WSN	CF	210	.167	.272	.305	64	81	53
Andruw Jones	2008	LAD	CF	209	.158	.256	.249	52	76	34
Tony Pena	2008	KCR	SS	225	.169	.189	.209	47	49	7

Angels catcher Jeff Mathis came close to joining in 2008. Fortunately for him, two singles in his last two at-bats of the campaign gave him 90 total bases to go with his 90 strikeouts in 283 at bats.

As I said, the 2009 season is roughly 25% over. Here are the players with more strikeouts than total bases in 50 or more AB so far:

• Brent Lillibridge, CHW - 68 AB, 13 TB, 21 SO
• Edwin Encarnacion, CIN - 63 AB, 12 TB, 19 SO
• Jordan Schafer, ATL - 125 AB, 40 TB, 46 SO
• B.J. Upton, TBR - 136 AB, 38 TB, 43 SO
• Cameron Maybin, FLA - 84 AB, 26 TB, 31 SO
• Josh Fields, CHW - 129 AB, 40 TB, 43 SO
• Travis Ishikawa, SFG - 89 AB, 26 TB, 28 SO
• Ramon Vazquez, PIT - 59 AB, 13 TB, 15 SO
• Jeff Mathis, LAA - 58 AB, 16 TB, 18 SO
• Kelly Shoppach, CLE - 66 AB, 26 TB, 27 SO
• Rob Johnson, SEA - 63 AB, 18 TB, 19 SO

More Strikeouts Than Times on Base

In a comment on my post of last Sunday, Mitchell Marshall suggested I look at players whose career strikeout percentage was greater than their career on base percentage. It's an interesting idea and I wish it didn't take me a week to get to it, but so it goes. I'm sure most readers are aware of the formula for on base percentage:



Thanks Wikipedia. The numerator of that fraction is sometimes shortened to times on base (TOB). There's other ways to reach base (errors, fielder's choice, etc.), but the three used in calculating OBP are the most common. So in order to compare strikeouts to on base percentage, I think it would be simplest to compare strikeouts to times on base. Thus in this post strikeout percentage is that same fraction but with only strikeouts in the numerator.

Tossing out pitchers, twenty-one players had 20 or more strikeouts than times on base in their careers. Most of them had a single season's worth or fewer plate appearances. Obviously, they all struggled to get on base: the highest OBP on the list is .328. Only five hitters were over .300.

Players With 20+ More Strikeouts Than Times on Base in Career

Name	Career	PA	SO	TOB	SO-TOB	SO%	OBP
Tom Egan	1965-1975	1084	336	285	51	.313	.266
Jim Fuller	1973-1977	341	130	84	46	.385	.249
J.R. Phillips	1993-1999	545	180	134	46	.331	.247
Melvin Nieves	1992-1998	1392	483	437	46	.347	.314
Dave Nicholson	1960-1967	1661	573	527	46	.346	.318
Russell Branyan	1998-2008	2319	797	759	38	.344	.328
Chad Hermansen	1999-2004	541	168	136	32	.315	.255
Ed Gastfield	1884-1885	90	37	8	29	.411	.089
Brad Eldred	2005-2007	255	93	64	29	.365	.251
Bo Jackson	1986-1994	2626	841	812	29	.321	.309
Jared Sandberg	2001-2003	706	236	208	28	.337	.297
Cliff Cook	1959-1963	435	136	109	27	.317	.254
Billy Ashley	1992-1998	688	236	211	25	.343	.307
Kevin Cash	2002-2008	557	161	137	24	.292	.248
Mike Hubbard	1995-2001	198	60	37	23	.303	.187
Jason Smith	2001-2008	591	172	150	22	.297	.259
Frank Cox	1884	104	36	15	21	.346	.144
Paul Ratliff	1963-1972	336	119	98	21	.355	.293
Phil Hiatt	1993-2001	463	149	128	21	.323	.278
Jackie Warner	1966	133	55	35	20	.414	.263
Ray Busse	1971-1974	168	54	34	20	.325	.205

My favorite player listed above is Ed Gastfield. The youngest player in the 1884 National League, Gastfield backed up Detroit catcher Charlie Bennett. While Bennett was a hitting star (OPS+ of 129 or higher in 7 of 8 seasons in Detroit), Gastfield was hapless at the plate. It's possible he was overmatched because of how young he was, but his awful .073/.095/.085 (6-82, 1 2B, 2 BB, 34 K in 84 PA) batting line in 23 games didn't make it likely he'd get a chance when he was older. Neither did his 20 passed balls and 35 errors in 19 games. Gastfield did suit up one time for Detroit in 1885, going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. Somehow he made his way to Chicago, appearing in one game and going 0-3 with 1 strikeout and 3 passed balls. That game ended his major league career.

Gastfield's career batting line works out to .068/.089/.080, good for a .169 OPS. I know it's comparing dissimilar things but I think it's interesting his SO% was more than double his OPS. He's one of only four players in all of major league history to have a higher SO% than OPS in 50 or more plate appearances:

• Ed Gastfield, .411 SO%, .168 OPS in 90 PA
  
• Enrique Cruz, .390 SO%, .240 OPS in 77 PA
• John Roskos, .358 SO%, .294 OPS in 53 PA
• Frank Cox, .346 SO%, .321 OPS in 104 PA

Fred Wood, the second-youngest player in the 1884 NL and Ed Gastfield's teammate, had a .367 SO% and .188 OPS in 49 plate appearances. Frank Cox also played on the 1884 Detroit Wolverines, helping to explain why they went 28-84, though at 26 he was an old man on the club. If 1884 is currently known as the year Chicago tinkered with their outfield fences and skewed home run totals, it should also be known as the year Detroit had a really, really, really bad offense. It's skewed because of the aforementioned Chicago shenanigans, but the team's OPS+ was 74. The team hit .208/.247/.284. Blech.

What of Cruz and Roskos? Well, Cruz was a rule 5 draft pick who spent all of 2003 in the majors with Milwaukee and resurfaced for one at bat with Cincinnati in 2007. Roskos was a C/1B/OF type who was drafted in the second round by Florida in 1993 and worked his way up the Marlins' minor league system but never really got a shot in the majors.

More Strikeouts than Hits, Total Bases

Individual batting strikeouts have been recorded all through major league history except for 1897-1909 in the National League, 1901-1912 in the American League, and all except two seasons of the 1880's American Association. Keeping those gaps in mind, there have only been thirty-four non-pitchers who have had over 100 more strikeouts than hits in their playing career.

Non-Pitchers with 100+ More Strikeouts than Hits in Career

Name	Years	SO	H	SO-H
Rob Deer	1984-1996	1409	853	556
Russell Branyan	1998-2008	797	460	337
Adam Dunn	2001-2008	1256	955	301
Gorman Thomas	1973-1986	1339	1051	288
Dave Nicholson	1960-1967	573	301	272
Bo Jackson	1986-1994	841	598	243
Mark Bellhorn	1997-2007	723	484	239
Pete Incaviglia	1986-1998	1277	1043	234
Jose Hernandez	1991-2006	1391	1166	225
Melvin Nieves	1992-1998	483	284	199
Jack Cust	2001-2008	420	244	176
Ron Karkovice	1986-1997	749	574	175
Mickey Tettleton	1984-1997	1307	1132	175
Mike Cameron	1995-2008	1642	1474	168
Ruben Rivera	1995-2003	510	343	167
Brad Wilkerson	2001-2008	947	788	159
Steve Balboni	1981-1993	856	714	142
Jim Thome	1991-2008	2190	2048	142
Carlos Pena	2001-2008	810	669	141
Tom Egan	1965-1975	336	196	140
Shane Andrews	1995-2002	515	375	140
Jason LaRue	1999-2008	731	592	139
Ray Oyler	1965-1970	359	221	138
Don Lock	1962-1969	776	642	134
Jay Buhner	1987-2001	1406	1273	133
Wily Mo Pena	2002-2008	520	402	118
Jonny Gomes	2003-2008	413	297	116
Craig Wilson	2001-2007	643	527	116
Ryan Howard	2004-2008	692	578	114
Pat Burrell	2000-2008	1273	1166	107
Todd Hundley	1990-2003	988	883	105
Gary Pettis	1982-1992	958	855	103
Dean Palmer	1989-2003	1332	1229	103
Mark Reynolds	2007-2008	333	231	102

In addition to the guys with more strikeouts than hits, there have also been some players with more strikeouts than total bases. It's a list mostly made up of players with short careers and very little power. Ten guys have wound up with 20 more strikeouts than total bases:

Non-Pitchers with 20+ More Strikeouts than Total Bases in Career

Name	Years	SO	TB	SO-TB
Tom Egan	1965-1975	336	293	43
Ray Oyler	1965-1970	359	317	42
Dave Nicholson	1960-1967	573	540	33
Ed Gastfield	1884-1885	37	7	30
Dave Adlesh	1963-1968	80	51	29
Chris Latham	1997-2003	85	59	26
Rob Nelson	1986-1990	66	43	23
Enrique Cruz	2003-2007	30	7	23
Moe Thacker	1958-1963	81	59	22
Tom Brown	1963	45	24	21

P.S. I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that the idea for this post came from an article about Mike Cameron posted on BrewCrewBall.com.

Update: SO > TB, Minimum 200 AB

Today I'm revisiting my first real post on this blog. Back in 2007, my first topic was hitters who wound up with more strikeouts than total bases. To make sure I only got players who spent a significant time in the majors, I set the minimum to qualify for the list at 200 at bats. It turns out three players have officially joined the list since the original post.

Name	Year	Team	Pos	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	TB	SO	OPS+
Bill Bergen	1911	BRO	C	227	.132	.183	.154	35	42	-4
Billy Consolo	1954	BOS	SS	242	.227	.324	.277	67	69	59
Billy Consolo	1959	BOS WSH	SS	216	.213	.331	.269	58	59	67
Ernie Fazio	1963	HOU	2B	228	.184	.273	.281	64	70	65
Jerry Kindall	1963	CLE	2B	234	.205	.266	.295	69	71	58
Dave Nicholson	1964	CHW	LF	294	.204	.329	.365	107	126	96
Chris Cannizzaro	1965	NYM	C	251	.183	.270	.231	58	60	46
Don Zimmer	1965	WSA	C	226	.199	.284	.252	57	59	55
Ray Oyler	1966	DET	SS	210	.171	.263	.252	53	62	48
Jerry Zimmerman	1967	MIN	C	234	.167	.243	.192	45	49	26
Ray Oyler	1968	DET	SS	215	.135	.213	.186	40	59	20
George Scott	1968	BOS	1B	350	.171	.236	.237	83	88	40
Dick Tracewski	1968	DET	SS	212	.156	.239	.236	50	51	43
Al Weis	1968	NYM	SS	274	.172	.234	.204	56	63	32
Darrel Chaney	1969	CIN	SS	209	.191	.278	.234	49	75	42
Ray Oyler	1969	SEP	SS	255	.165	.260	.267	68	80	49
Jim Mason	1975	NYY	SS	223	.152	.228	.211	47	49	27
John Hale	1978	SEA	RF	211	.171	.283	.265	56	64	56
Leroy Stanton	1978	SEA	LF	302	.182	.265	.248	75	80	47
Bobby Bonds	1980	STL	LF	231	.203	.305	.316	73	74	72
Tom Donohue	1980	CAL	C	218	.188	.216	.243	53	63	27
Reggie Jackson	1983	CAL	RF	397	.194	.290	.340	135	140	74
Gary Pettis	1987	CAL	CF	394	.208	.302	.259	102	124	53
Jody Davis	1989	ATL	C	231	.169	.246	.242	56	61	39
John Shelby	1989	LAD	CF	345	.183	.237	.229	79	92	36
Jeff Kunkel	1990	TEX	SS	200	.170	.221	.280	56	66	40
Rob Deer	1991	DET	RF	448	.179	.314	.386	173	175	92
Hensley Meulens	1991	NYY	LF	288	.222	.276	.319	92	97	65
Gary Pettis	1991	TEX	CF	282	.216	.341	.277	78	91	75
Andujar Cedeno	1992	HOU	SS	220	.173	.232	.277	61	71	47
Jack Clark	1992	BOS	DH	257	.210	.350	.311	80	87	82
Billy Ashley	1995	LAD	LF	215	.237	.320	.372	80	88	90
Benji Gil	1995	TEX	SS	415	.219	.266	.347	144	147	60
Kimera Bartee	1996	DET	CF	217	.253	.308	.304	66	77	57
Archi Cianfrocco	1997	SDP	1B	220	.245	.328	.355	78	80	85
Mark Johnson	1997	PIT	1B	219	.215	.345	.315	69	78	73
Ryan McGuire	1998	MON	1B	210	.186	.292	.243	51	55	46
Greg Vaughn	2002	TBD	LF	251	.163	.286	.315	79	82	60
Mark Bellhorn	2005	BOS NYY	2B	300	.210	.324	.357	107	112	81
Mark Bellhorn	2006	SDP	3B	253	.190	.285	.344	87	90	66
Ryan Langerhans	2007	ATL OAK WSN	OF	210	.167	.272	.305	64	81	53
Andruw Jones	2008	LAD	CF	209	.158	.256	.249	52	76	34
Tony Pena Jr.	2008	KCR	SS	225	.169	.189	.209	47	49	7
Name	Year	Team	Pos	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	TB	SO	OPS+

I think it's cool that Pena became only the second player with an OPS+ of under 10 to show up. In fact, he is the first player since Bill Bergen a century ago to have an OPS+ that low under in 200+ at bats.

In addition to Langerhans, Jones, and Pena, Jeff Mathis of the Angels deserves a mention. In 2008 he came to bat 283 times and wound up with 90 total bases. He also struck out 90 times. Darrel Chaney in 1973 was the last player to have equal strikeouts and total bases in 200 or more at bats.

I wonder which hitters will linger long enough in the big leagues next year to make the list. I guess we'll see...