Showing posts with label Team Pitching. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Team Pitching. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Who Needs Lefties, Part Two

In my last post, I looked at teams that used only two lefthanded pitchers in a season. In response to a comment on that post, I figured it would be worthwhile to look at teams that didn't use any lefties. If you go back to the early days of professional baseball, it would be easier to list teams that did use a lefty - the 1876 NL had no confirmed lefthanders (three clubs had pitchers of unknown handedness). Teams remained lefty-averse (or at least didn't employ memorably-handed hurlers) through the early 1890s.

Only four teams since 1900 have gone through an entire season without a single lefthander:
But does it really matter how many lefties you have if you never use them anyway? Here are the teams since 1954 with the fewest batters faced by lefthanders:
Note: the 1994 Los Angeles Dodgers (206 BF), 1994 Oakland Athletics (314 BF), 1981 Cincinnati Reds (344 BF), and 1994 Cleveland Indians (346 PA) played in strike-shortened seasons.

With six games left to play, the 2009 Cardinals duo of Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes has faced a combined 335 batters.

This year's Cardinals and a couple other teams above spoil my ending a bit, but it sure looks to me like the answer to "Who needs lefties?" is "winning teams."

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Who Needs Lefties?

With just seventeen games to go this season, the St. Louis Cardinals have used only two lefthanded pitchers, Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes. Miller and Reyes are the only lefties on their current roster, so it is unlikely a third lefty will make an appearance for the club.

Since expansion in 1961, only nineteen other teams have made it through a season with only two lefthanders:
  • 1961 Baltimore Orioles: Steve Barber & Billy Hoeft
  • 1965 Boston Red Sox: Dennis Bennett & Arnold Earley
  • 1969 Los Angeles Dodgers: Jim Brewer & Claude Osteen
  • 1971 Montreal Expos: Dan McGinn & John O'Donoghue
  • 1974 Montreal Expos: Terry Enyart & Balor Moore
  • 1976 Oakland Athletics: Vida Blue & Paul Lindblad
  • 1977 Houston Astros: Floyd Bannister & Joe Sambito
  • 1981 Cincinnati Reds: Charlie Liebrandt & Joe Price
  • 1982 Chicago Cubs: Willie Hernandez & Ken Kravec
  • 1982 Toronto Blue Jays: Jerry Garvin & Dave Geisel
  • 1983 Cincinnati Reds: Joe Price & Bill Scherrer
  • 1983 Toronto Blue Jays: Stan Clarke & Dave Geisel
  • 1984 Chicago Cubs: Ron Meridith & Steve Trout
  • 1993 Los Angeles Dodgers: Omar Daal & Steve Wilson
  • 1996 Chicago Cubs: Larry Casian & Bob Patterson
  • 2004 Anaheim Angels: Dusty Bergman & Jarrod Washburn
  • 2006 LAnaheim Angels: J.C. Romero & Joe Saunders
  • 2007 LAnaheim Angels: Darren Oliver & Joe Saunders
  • 2008 LAnaheim Angels: Darren Oliver & Joe Saunders
With Brian Fuentes newly installed as closer, it took the Angels until the second game of the 2009 season to have three different lefties pitch.

The 1947 Philadelphia Athletics were the last team to use only one lefty. Lou Brissie started all of one game that year, allowing five runs in seven innings.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

2009 Team Unearned Runs

On Friday I cross-posted something I wrote for Brew Crew Ball regarding earned and unearned runs in an inning with errors and pitching changes. One of the topics that came up was team unearned runs.

The concept of team unearned runs comes from Official Rule 10.16(i).
When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not have the benefit of previous chances for outs not accepted in determining earned runs.
You can read my Friday post for an example of this rule being applied. Team unearned runs come into play if a reliever allows earned (to him) runs to score after the team should have been out of the inning. They're relatively rare, since errors, pitching changes, and ineffective relief pitching all have to present for one to result.

Team unearned runs can have an effect on baseball statistics, though. Since they are charged as earned runs to relief pitchers but unearned runs to the team, summing up earned runs allowed by a team's pitchers can make a team's ERA look higher than it should. Baseball-Reference.com calculates team ER and team ERA by summing the earned runs allowed of the team's pitchers, so that's at least one often-used site that can be off. As noted Friday, Cleveland is one example of this. Unfortunately, there are ten other teams in the same boat through June 6.
  • Arizona Diamondbacks
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 252/4.48 - Correct ER/ERA: 250/4.45

    May 25 - 8th inning - Jon Rauch charged with two earned runs (both team unearned)

  • Baltimore Orioles
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 293/5.37 - Correct ER/ERA: 290/5.32

    April 15 - 4th inning - Radhames Liz charged with three earned runs (all team unearned)

  • Chicago Cubs
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 211/4.05 - Correct ER/ERA: 210/4.04

    June 2 - 8th inning - Carlos Marmol charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Cleveland Indians
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 298/5.27 - Correct ER/ERA: 297/5.25

    May 12 - 7th inning - Tony Sipp charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Colorado Rockies
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 252/4.71 - Correct ER/ERA: 250/4.67

    April 18 - 7th inning - Ryan Speier charged with one earned run (team unearned)
    May 17 - 7th inning - Manuel Corpas charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Detroit Tigers
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 217/4.09 - Correct ER/ERA: 209/3.94

    April 7 - 8th inning - Brandon Lyon charged with three earned runs (two team unearned)
    April 28 - 7th inning - Nate Robertson charged with four earned runs (all team unearned); Brandon Lyon charged with two earned runs (both team unearned)

  • Florida Marlins
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 259/4.51 - Correct ER/ERA: 257/4.47

    May 19 - 7th inning - Renyel Pinto charged with one earned run (team unearned)
    June 3 - 5th inning - Hayden Penn charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Milwaukee Brewers
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 223/4.07 - Correct ER/ERA: 222/4.05

    May 18 - 7th inning - Mark DiFelice charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Oakland Athletics
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 235/4.30 - Correct ER/ERA: 234/4.28

    April 28 - 6th inning - Andrew Bailey charged with one earned run (team unearned)

    This is further notable because of an error in the Baseball-Reference box score/play-by-play. Bailey entered the game due to injury with a 2-0 count on Michael Young. The box score/play-by-play lists Young's walk (and later run) as belonging to Bailey when in fact it should belong to Anderson per Official Rule 10.16(h). Curiously, the walk and run do not count against his total on his player page but they are still there in his game log.

  • San Diego Padres
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 245/4.49 - Correct ER/ERA: 244/4.47

    April 29 - 6th inning - Arturo Lopez charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Tampa Bay Rays
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 251/4.49 - Correct ER/ERA: 247/4.42

    May 25 - 9th inning - Grant Balfour charged with two unearned runs (both team unearned); Jason Isringhausen charged with two unearned runs (both team unearned)
Obviously the difference will mean less as the season goes on. Where one team unearned run might cause a difference of 0.02 in a team's ERA now, it might not cause an apparent difference in a team's ERA at the end of the season. However, that's no reason to ignore the fact there is a difference. Who knows, maybe those eight team unearned runs will be the difference between Detroit finishing first, second, or third in the team ERA standings.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Team IP/G

A recent comment over at Brew Crew Ball inspired this post. The writer suggested projections for Brewers pitchers should add up to 1458 innings as a team. That, of course, would be the total of 162 games with nine innings pitched by the team. Yours truly replied with an awkward sounding suggestion that road losses requiring only eight innings pitched were to blame for the projections falling a little short. I figured that most teams finished below 1458 innings pitched and indeed only three teams (the Mets, Padres, and Twins) reached that number in 2008. I also wondered about the record for the highest (and lowest) average team innings pitched per game. Placing high on the list would seem to require winning often on the road and/or playing a lot of extra inning games. Likewise, showing up near to bottom would require losing a lot away from home and/or weather-shortened games.

I started by grabbing yearly pitching totals for each franchise from the franchise encyclopedia section of Baseball-Reference.com (a sample). Unfortunately those pages don't include thirds of an inning, but that won't change the results much anyway. In case of ties, though, I've gone and checked the relevant team pages. After getting all those numbers, it's easy to sort by innings pitched per game.

The bottom of the list is dominated by teams from the 19th and early 20th centuries. A simple reason for this games shorted because of darkness. Fields also weren't engineered as well as they are today, meaning inclement weather could shut games down much more quickly.

The two major league teams that averaged the fewest innings pitched per game folded shortly after beginning play. The 1884 St. Paul White Caps and 1884 Wilmington Quicksteps, both members of the Union Association, averaged 7.89 IP/G. St. Paul went 2-6 while Wilmington went 2-6-1 while Wilmington went 2-16. The 1884 Richmond Virginians, part of the American Association, were third from the bottom, averaging 8.04 IP in their 46 games.

It should come as no surprise that the team with the lowest average over a full season also owns the record for most losses in a season. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders, the best 20-134 team in baseball history, averaged a merciful 8.21 innings pitched per game. Just above them were the 1890 Baltimore Orioles and five Washington teams from the 1890's.

Turning to more modern teams, here are the bottom ten since expansion in 1961:
  1. 2005 Royals, 8.72 (1413.1 IP/162 G)
  2. 1961 Athletics, 8.73 (1415.0/162)
  3. 2001 Pirates, 8.74 (1416.1/162)
  4. 1979 Blue Jays, 8.75 (1417.0/162)
  5. 1978 White Sox, 8.75 (1409.0/161)
  6. 1983 Mariners, 8.75 (1418.0/162)
  7. 2005 Rockies, 8.76 (1418.2/162)
  8. 1985 Rangers, 8.76 (1411.0/161)
  9. 2006 Orioles, 8.76 (1419.0/162)
  10. 1997 Phillies, 8.77 (1420.0/162)
    1999 Padres, 8.77 (1420.0/162)
    2003 Rockies, 8.77 (1420.0/162)
All of these teams finished with more than 90 losses except for the 1999 Padres and 2003 Rockies (88 losses each). Many of them lost over 100 games. That's a lot of eight-inning contests. Surprisingly, the 1983 Mariners actually had an ERA+ over 100.

The other extreme has a mix of different eras. The top spot is held by the 1918 Washington Senators, a team that averaged a stunning 9.45 innings pitched over their 130 games. They went 72-56-2, finishing third in the league. There must have been a lot of extra baseball in Washington that year. The 1876 Louisville Grays are second, averaging 9.32 IP/G despite giving up just under 5 runs each game. The 1876 New York Mutuals took third at 9.30 IP/G while allowing over 7 runs each day. The 1969 Twins are the highest team since expansion, throwing 1497 innings on the year, or 9.24 per game. They finished 97-65 and played eleven games that lasted 13 or more innings.

Here are the top ten averages since expansion:
  1. 1969 Twins, 9.24 (1497.0 IP/162 G)
  2. 1973 Dodgers, 9.20 (1491.0/162)
  3. 1967 White Sox, 9.20 (1490.0/162)
  4. 1988 Athletics, 9.19 (1489.0/162)
  5. 1996 Padres, 9.19 (1489.0/162)
  6. 1982 Dodgers, 9.19 (1488.0/162)
  7. 1985 Mets, 9.19 (1488.0/162)
  8. 1964 Yankees, 9.18 (1506.0/164)
  9. 1972 Padres, 9.17 (1403.0/153)
  10. 1972 Reds, 9.17 (1412.0/154)
These teams all finished with 88 or more wins, with one notable exception. The 1972 Padres managed to lose 95 games despite throwing so many innings. They were better on the road (32-41) than they were at home (26-54) but that doesn't explain it all. Another big reason they averaged so many innings was the 21 extra inning games they played. By my count, they played 62 extra frames that season. The 1972 Padres were the only team on the list with an ERA+ under 100.

Wondering about the high and low teams in 2008? It turns out three teams averaged at least nine innings pitched per game, but one of them isn't one of the teams that totaled over 1458 innings. The Mets led the majors with 1464.1 innings pitched in 162 games, or 9.04 IP/G. The Cubs were next with 1450.2 in 161 games, or 9.01 IP/G. Finally, the Padres wound up at 1458 1/3 IP, just a hair over 9.00 IP/G. The bottom three teams were the Orioles, Astros, and Diamondbacks, averaging 8.83, 8.85, and 8.86 innings per game, respectively. The major league average was 8.93 IP/G. The major league average has hovered between 8.90 and 8.93 since 2000.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Most Unearned Runs In a Game

If you've ever scrolled to the bottom of my blog you may have noticed a small Site Meter logo. Clicking on it takes you to the site summary for Recondite Baseball, and from there you can see the number of visits here every day. Another cool page there lists the referring URL for people who make it to my site. Most of the time it's Google searches directing people here but occasionally it's a new link from another website. Every once in a while, one of those Google searches or links brings up something interesting.

Last night, someone visited from a forum where a question was posted about the most unearned runs given up by a team in one game. I didn't have the answer on the site, but last September, I posted about the most unearned runs charged to individual pitchers and that entry was linked to in the forum. Of course, once I saw that, I wanted to know what the answer actually was.

I'm sure unearned runs were far more common in the late 19th century and early 20th century, when errors occurred much more frequently. In fact, looking at the career numbers of some pitchers from then confirms this. Nearly one-third of the runs allowed by Christy Mathewson were unearned. One-quarter of the runs Walter Johnson allowed were unearned. Cy Young gave up over 1000 unearned runs in his career.

When so many runs were unearned, it's likely at least some blowout games saw a lot of unearned runs. I would also think unearned runs weren't very notable. Sure, fans might harp on a team's defense (or lack thereof), but giving up, say, five unearned runs in a game probably wouldn't have the same surprise factor as it would today. With that in mind, perhaps it's good that the following list covers 1956-2008, where a lot of errors in a game is pretty glaring.

Most Unearned Runs Allowed In a Game By One Team, 1956-2008

TeamOpponentDateRuns
TotalEarnedUnearned
Houston AstrosNew York Mets7/27/198516016
Houston AstrosChicago Cubs5/31/197316313
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals9/12/197616313
Texas RangersCalifornia Angels9/14/197816313
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles6/5/198916313
Toronto Blue JaysBalitmore Orioles9/28/2000231013
New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers8/26/196216412
Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants9/3/196316511
Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers6/30/199216511
Boston Red SoxCleveland Indians7/14/195717710
Chicago CubsMontreal Expos6/25/197512210
San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals4/26/197615510
California AngelsChicago White Sox5/31/197817710
Oakland AthleticsMinnesota Twins4/27/1980201010
Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates5/3/198516610
Oakland AthleticsCleveland Indians6/7/198712210
Oakland AthleticsChicago White Sox10/3/198717710
Minnesota TwinsNew York Yankees7/22/199010010
Houston AstrosSan Diego Padres4/7/199617710
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays5/5/199611110
Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers10/7/200115510
Los Angeles AngelsNew York Yankees8/3/200814410

Hm, I guess sixteen runs allowed is the magic number for a lot of them to be unearned. I didn't realize the Angels gave up ten unearned runs only a couple weeks ago. I guess you learn something new every day.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Balks: The Story of the 1988 Major League Baseball Season

Baseball Official Rule 8.01(b): The pitcher, following his stretch, must (a) hold the ball in both hands in front of his body and (b) come to a complete stop.

1988 Baseball Official Rule 8.01(b): The pitcher, following his stretch, must (a) hold the ball in both hands in front of his body, and (b) come to a single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.

The difference between the two rules is that the 1988 version replaced “complete stop” with “single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.” This slight change, intended to make balk calls more uniform throughout major league baseball, instead sparked one of most frustrating summers ever for major league hurlers. Only six weeks after opening day, Rick Mahler of the Atlanta Braves committed the 357th balk of the 1988 season, breaking the MLB record for most balks in a complete season…with three-quarters of the season to play. Before all was said and done, American League pitchers were called for a staggering 558 balks. Their National League brethren had it a little easier, “only” committing 366 balks. How did an obscure, little-understood rule make such a large impact on the major league game?

Where Did The Balk Rule Come From, Anyway?

The balk rule is difficult to follow through baseball history. The first mention of a balk in baseball rules is found in Alexander Cartwright’s 1845 Knickerbocker Rules. Unfortunately, Cartwright does not define what constitutes a balk. At an 1857 rules convention, a balk was to be called when a pitcher stepped over a line 45 feet away from home plate while delivering a pitch. All baserunners moved up one base.

Section 7 of the 1864 Rules and Regulations of the National Association of Base-Ball Players stated, “The ball must be pitched, not jerked nor thrown to the bat; and whenever the pitcher draws back his hand, or moves with the apparent purpose or pretension to deliver the ball, he shall so deliver it, and he must have neither foot in advance of the front line or off the ground at the time of delivering the ball; and if he fails in either of these particulars, then it shall be declared a baulk [sic].”

Rule 25 of the 1884 Playing Rules of the American Association of Baseball Clubs defined the balk:

  1. A motion made by the Pitcher to deliver the ball to the bat without delivering it, except the ball be accidentally dropped, or
  2. The ball he held by the Pitcher so long as to delay the game unnecessarily, or
  3. Any motion to deliver the ball, or the delivering of the ball to the bat by the Pitcher when any part of his person is upon ground outside the lines of his position.
  4. When after being once warned by the Umpire, the Pitcher continues to deliver the ball with his hand passing above his shoulder.

The first balk rule dealing with runners on base was inserted into the rule book in 1898. It stated a pitcher was compelled to throw to a base if he made a motion in that direction. The following year, the balk rule was refined to say a pitcher could not fake a pickoff throw. In 1940, a throw or faked throw to an unoccupied base became a balk. In 1968, the rules said if a pitcher “goes to his mouth” with men on base, it’s a balk.

You might have noticed that nothing in all of that says anything about coming to a complete stop before pitching. Presumably that rule developed from pitchers attempting to prevent stolen bases. I did find, however, that a new rule requiring a one-second stop before delivering a pitch with men on base was implemented in 1950.

Balk Bumps and Brouhahas

It is clear, however, that the “complete stop” section of the balk rule was in effect in 1937. In a game against the Giants on May 19 of that year, Cardinals pitcher Dizzy Dean was called for a balk in the sixth inning. The Giants went on to score three runs in the inning. Retaliating against the umpires by repeatedly throwing knockdown pitches, Dean eventually runs full speed into Giants player Jimmy Ripple while Ripple is attempting to reach first on a bunt base hit. Following an on-field scuffle, the Cardinals lose the game. In a mocking attempt to further show his displeasure, Dizzy puts a several-second stop in his delivery during his next start. After calling NL president Ford Frick a “crook,” Dean is suspended indefinitely on June 2. He later denied the statements at a meeting with the press and his suspension is lifted a few days later.

League balk totals didn’t show a spike in 1937, so it seems Dean’s case was solitary that season. Thirteen years later, however, NL pitchers committed 76 balks after only being called for 25 the year before. The American League saw a smaller bump, with totals rising to 47 after only 31 the year before. This increase in balks can be explained by the aforementioned new “one second” rule implemented for the 1950 season. On May 3, Yankees pitcher Vic Raschi set a major league record with four balks in one game. At the time, the season record for balks was six.

In a strange coincidence, the National League cracked down on balks again for the 1963 season. After only 48 balks in 1962, the NL total jumped up to 147 in 1963. An order to umpires to clamp down on balks resulted in twenty balks called in the first twenty games of the year. Bob Friend of the Pittsburgh Pirates set an NL season record with six balks…in his first seventeen innings. Consternation was so great that National League President Warren Giles instructed umpires to disregard the “one second” requirement on April 27. At the time of the announcement, NL pitchers had committed 68 balks while AL pitchers had committed two. Despite the new instructions, NL umpires still called more balks (79) than their AL counterparts (45) over the last five months of the season. Following the season, NL balks were back in line with old totals for the rest of the decade.

The National League again took the lead in cracking down on balks for the 1974 season. While AL totals once again stayed pat, NL totals more than doubled from 52 in 1973 to 140 in 1974. Strangely, there did not seem to be much of a furor over the increase in balks called. One possible explanation for the rise was the ultimately rejected “balk line” experiment intended to make it easier to call balks on pickoff throws to first. Did NL umpires just get used to calling balks more often than AL umps? Whatever the case, NL balk totals stayed in the triple digits for nearly thirty years.

Hey, That’s Not in the Chinese Zodiac: “1988: The Year of the Balk”

Both leagues would be affected by a sharp increase in balks fourteen years later. A jaw-dropping increase in balks led to the 1988 season being called “The Year of the Balk.” For once, the American League was responsible for most of the balk blow-up, with an increase from 137 balks in 1987 to 558 in 1988. The National League went from 219 to 366.

As I mentioned to start the post, the reason for the bump was a change in Rule 8.01(b). The phrase “complete stop” was switched to “single complete and discernible stop, with both feet on the ground.” The origin of the rule change was supposedly the 1987 World Series. St. Louis Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog vocally complained about Twins pitcher Bert Blyleven, vehemently claiming there were up to nineteen uncalled balks in the series. The Twins ultimately won the World Series in seven games. Regardless of what prompted the change in phrasing, the man responsible, in the eyes of many fans, was National League president and soon to be Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti. Formerly the president of Yale University, Giamatti took over as NL president in 1986. In between the 1987 and 1988 season, Giamatti was part of the rules committee that decided to change the wording of the balk rule. Thanks to an awful lot of press coverage, Giamatti became the most visible member of the rules committee and, as such, was tagged as the man behind the new balk rule. Suspending Reds manager Pete Rose for a month after Rose shoved an umpire didn’t help fans’ opinion of Giamatti. In late July at Shea Stadium, during the number retirement ceremony for pitcher Tom Seaver, Giamatti was soundly booed by the Mets crowd.

Giamatti wasn’t the only one on the rules committee, so it’s unfair to single him out for the havoc the new rule caused. Before the regular season started, spring training games showed that there might be issues with balks. On March 7, twelve balks were called in one game between the Rangers and Blue Jays. Rangers knuckleballer Charlie Hough had a rough day, being called for seven balks in the second inning, and nine in the game. By March 15, the Major League Baseball Players Association was complaining about balks and umpires had called 124 balks in 126 games, six times the rate as the previous season.

No action was taken to prevent “Balkmania” as some people began calling the deluge of balks. In the first week of the 1988 season, umpires called 73 balks. In 1987, umpires only called nineteen balks in the same amount of time. Less than two weeks into the season, balks leaguewide were already 40% of the way to the total number of balks called the previous year, and the Oakland Athletics as a team had already passed the team totals of every 1987 AL team except Texas. The increase in balks raised tensions not only on the field, but in dugouts as well. Following a bases loaded balk by De Wayne Buice in late April, California Angels pitching coach Marcel Lachemann vented about the new balk rule: “They're going to make some rules because that little white-haired bleep in the National League moaned.” Always fiery Yankees manager Billy Martin suggested he would tell his pitchers to stop for five minutes between every pitch.

The single-season MLB record for total balks was broken on May 15, only 41 days into the season. At that point in the season, Oakland pitcher Dave Stewart had committed eleven balks to that point, tying the major league record for most balks in a season. It took until May 26 to have a day go by without a balk in major league baseball. The fourteen balk-less games lowered the MLB balks per game average to 0.76 (416 in 544 games).

Finally, after 924 balks in the major leagues during the 1988 season, baseball’s leaders had had enough. On January 26, 1989, the MLB rules committee decided to change the wording of the balk rule back to what it had been before the 1987 season. Balk totals dropped in 1989 and fell even further in 1990. There haven’t been any spikes in balk numbers since that season.

The Damage to the Record Books Revealed (Where’s the Asterisk?)

As I mentioned, the major league record for balks in a season by one pitcher going into the year was Steve Carlton’s 11 in 1979. In 1988, seven different pitchers had at least eleven balks, including one reliever:

  1. Dave Stewart, OAK, 16, 275 2/3 IP
  2. Bob Welch, OAK, 13, 244 2/3
  3. Jose Guzman, TEX, 12, 206 2/3
  4. John Candelaria, NYY, 12, 157
  5. Jack Morris, DET, 11, 235
  6. Mike Birkbeck, MIL, 11, 124
  7. Rod Scurry, SEA, 11, 31 1/3

Dennis Martinez (Montreal), Pascual Perez (Montreal), and David Cone (New York) shared the National League lead with 10 balks on the year.

The AL team record for balks in a season had been 26, set by Texas in 1987. Only one AL team managed to finish 1988 with fewer than 26 balks:

  1. Oakland, 76
  2. Detroit, 68
  3. Texas, 57
  4. Seattle, 55
  5. New York, 41
  6. Boston, 39
  7. Milwaukee, 39
  8. Cleveland, 38
  9. Minnesota, 38
  10. California, 37
  11. Chicago, 30
  12. Toronto, 29
  13. Kansas City, 27
  14. Baltimore, 25

Montreal paced the National League with 41 balks on the year. New York and Pittsburgh were on the Expos’ heels with 40.

One strange postscript to the Year of the Balk was John Dopson's 1989 season. After committing only one balk in 168 2/3 innings for the Expos in 1988, Dopson was called for fifteen balks in 1989 as a member of the Red Sox.

Further Reading

I found a few articles from 1988 that appeared the New York Times and Sports Illustrated that had a lot of the numbers I used. The end-of-season numbers come from Baseball-Reference.com

Friday, July 25, 2008

Franchise Vulture Wins

Yesterday's yesterday's tomorrow's tomorrow is today, right? I've put together lists of vulture wins and blown save wins by franchise and here they are. It should be obvious, but teams in two or more cities (San Francisco/New York) or with two or more names (Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos) are combined under the franchise's current identity.

Vulture Wins by MLB Franchise, 1956-2008
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
  1. St. Louis Cardinals, 455
  2. Cincinnati Reds, 444
  3. Atlanta Braves, 443
  4. Philadelphia Phillies, 440
  5. San Francisco Giants, 437
  6. Chicago Cubs, 403
  7. Pittsburgh Pirates, 395
  8. Los Angeles Dodgers, 393
  9. Houston Astros, 385
  10. New York Mets, 359
  11. San Diego Padres, 359
  12. Washington Nationals, 354
  13. Oakland Athletics, 343
  14. Chicago White Sox, 334
  15. Cleveland Indians, 334
  16. New York Yankees, 333
  17. Minnesota Twins, 319
  18. Boston Red Sox, 315
  19. Detroit Tigers, 298
  20. Los Angeles Angels, 296
  21. Texas Rangers, 274
  22. Baltimore Orioles, 272
  23. Milwaukee Brewers, 268
  24. Kansas City Royals, 233
  25. Seattle Mariners, 219
  26. Toronto Blue Jays, 200
  27. Colorado Rockies, 198
  28. Florida Marlins, 170
  29. Arizona Diamondbacks, 148
  30. Tampa Bay Rays, 89
Obviously the bottom part of the list is cluttered by expansion teams, but something still jumps out at me. The first American League team doesn't show up until place #13, beneath four National League expansion teams. I suspect most of that is due to the designated hitter. After all, if the pitcher's spot never comes up, then it's easier to leave a reliever in for more than one inning, thus making it much harder for him to pick up a vulture win. It also makes it easier to leave a starter pitching well in a close game on the mound if you don't need to pinch hit for offense.

Blown Save Wins by MLB Franchise, 1956-2008
(through 7/24/08)
(teams extant in 1956 italicized)
  1. New York Yankees, 169
  2. San Francisco Giants, 157
  3. Oakland Athletics, 149
  4. Boston Red Sox, 143
  5. Minnesota Twins, 140
  6. Texas Rangers, 140
  7. Pittsburgh Pirates, 138
  8. Chicago Cubs, 135
  9. Chicago White Sox, 134
  10. Baltimore Orioles, 125
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers, 125
  12. Los Angeles Angels, 124
  13. Cleveland Indians, 122
  14. Atlanta Braves, 121
  15. Cincinnati Reds, 121
  16. Philadelphia Phillies, 114
  17. San Diego Padres, 111
  18. Detroit Tigers, 110
  19. Houston Astros, 110
  20. New York Mets, 107
  21. Milwaukee Brewers, 103
  22. St. Louis Cardinals, 101
  23. Washington Nationals, 97
  24. Kansas City Royals, 95
  25. Seattle Mariners, 84
  26. Toronto Blue Jays, 73
  27. Colorado Rockies, 39
  28. Florida Marlins, 39
  29. Tampa Bay Rays, 29
  30. Arizona Diamondbacks, 23
This list isn't quite as separated by league, but that makes sense. When a closer comes in and blows a save yet still picks up the win, his team most likely regained the lead in their next time at bat. Even if the closer is pinch hit for in his team's next time at bat in NL games, he's still the pitcher of record, so there's no favoring one league over the other in terms of blown save wins by team.

I'm surprised a team like Arizona that's had pretty good success during its time in the majors trails everyone else. I would've expected a team with less wins overall (like Tampa Bay) to be far behind all other teams simply because of a lack of save opportunities. Then again, perhaps Tampa Bay has had more blown saves than Arizona and thus more chances to win those games for their closer(s).

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Crazy and Wild Pitches

Wild pitches are pretty exciting plays...as long as your favorite team is batting. A wild pitch is officially defined as "one so high, so low, or so wide of the plate that it cannot be handled with ordinary effort by the catcher." That doesn't sound so bad as long as there are no baserunners at the time. When there are baserunners, wild pitches mean free bases or, in the worst case for a pitcher, free runs.

It seems this year there's been a lot of wild pitches. Since the start of the 1998 season, only four pitches have reached twenty wild pitches in a season: Matt Clement (23) in 2000, Scott Williamson (21) in 2000, Jose Contreras (20) in 2005, and Freddy Garcia (20) in 2005. Only thirty-eight pitchers have reached 14 or more in a single season since then. A little over halfway through this year, however, four pitchers have already reached double-digits. Those four are Ubaldo Jimenez (13) of Colorado, Manny Parra (11) of Milwaukee, Tim Wakefield (10) of Boston, and Tim Lincecum (10) of San Francisco.

The National League collectively is on pace for 824 wild pitches this season, the most since 2003. The American League is only on pace for 725, actually a decrease from the past two seasons. So, since the AL went and dismissed my idea wild pitches are on an upswing across the board, let's look at potential team records. Through 93 games this season, the Giants have tossed 49 wild pitches. That puts them on pace for a staggering 85 wild pitches this year, the most for an NL team since the Reds went nuts with 96 in 2000 (the '06 Angels and Royals both had 85). As noted, the AL has seen fewer wild pitches and the Royals and Rangers, both with 38 in 94 games, are on pace for "only" 65 this season. That would be the fewest wild pitches by an AL leading team since the 2003 Rays had 65 (the '01 Brewers led the NL with 58).

Houston only has 13 wild pitches in 93 games, putting them on pace for only 23 total this season. That would be the fewest by a major league team since the Mets only had 22 wild pitches in 2002. The AL laggard Oakland A's, already have 18 wild pitches in 93 games, putting them each on pace for 31 wild pitches. The 2005 Indians were the last team in the AL to have fewer than 31 wild pitches in a season.

For fun, I've put together a list of the fifteen pitchers since 1901 who were allowed to throw ten or more wild pitches at a rate of at least one every six innings. That'll be it for the day, as there are more cherries to be picked. :)

Fewest Innings per Wild Pitch in a Season, minimum 10 WP, 1901-2007
  1. Stu Flythe, 1936 Athletics, 16 WP, 39.3 IP - 2.5 IP/WP
  2. Jason Grimsley, 1991 Phillies, 14 WP, 61.0 IP - 4.4 IP/WP
  3. Danny McDevitt, 1962 Athletics, 11 WP, 51.0 IP - 4.6 IP/WP
  4. Jaret Wright, 2003 Padres/Braves, 12 WP, 56.3 IP - 4.7 IP/WP
  5. Storm Davis, 1994 Tigers, 10 WP, 48.0 IP - 4.8 IP/WP
  6. Scott Williamson, 2003 Reds/Red Sox, 12 WP, 62.7 IP - 5.2 IP/WP
  7. Scott Williamson, 2000 Reds, 21 WP, 112.0 IP - 5.3 IP/WP
  8. Richie Lewis, 1994 Marlins, 10 WP, 54.0 IP - 5.4 IP/WP
  9. Mark Guthrie, 2000 Cubs/Devil Rays/Blue Jays, 13 WP, 71.3 IP - 5.5 IP/WP
  10. Tom Candiotti, 1999 Athletics/Indians, 13 WP, 71.3 IP - 5.5 IP/WP
  11. Hector Carrasco, 2000 Twins/Red Sox, 14 WP, 78.7 IP - 5.6 IP/WP
  12. Dave Giusti, 1962 Colt .45's, 13 WP, 73.7 IP - 5.7 IP/WP
  13. Dennis Higgins, 1969 Senators, 15 WP, 85.3 IP - 5.7 IP/WP
  14. Jeff Robinson, 1991 Angels, 10 WP, 57.0 IP - 5.7 IP/WP
  15. Hector Carrasco, 1995 Reds, 15 WP, 87.3 IP - 5.8 IP/WP

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Playoff Rotations, 2003-2007

Anyone who's been a regular reader here knows how I've already looked at rotation spots throughout MLB in terms of FIP and ERA. The numbers for each league in 2007 and data for 2003-2007 using both statistics can be found here. The methodology is also explained there.

I've noticed some people disparaging the notion of a pitcher putting up league average numbers having much value. After all, the reasoning goes, league average includes all the bad teams whereas the average rotation to make the playoffs would be more telling (because no mediocre teams make the playoffs). Snark aside, there's a certain logic in that line of thinking. Making the playoffs with a below average rotation is possible (see: 2007 Phillies), but rare.

With that in mind, I decided to crunch the numbers and find out the rotation numbers of playoff teams over the past five seasons. Treating all four teams each year as one giant staff starting approximately 648 games, I then figured out the FIP and ERA for each rotation spot. Below are the results compared to the relevant league average for each season. The numbers (#1, #2, etc.) correspond to each spot in the rotation.

FIP: AL Playoff Teams vs. AL Average, 2003-2007

YearTeamFIP#1#2#3#4#5
2003AL Playoff Teams4.103.183.774.234.435.15
AL Average4.733.574.304.785.176.30
2004AL Playoff Teams4.383.423.934.344.955.55
AL Average4.803.754.404.775.196.11
2005AL Playoff Teams4.333.604.054.304.565.43
AL Average4.563.654.184.564.925.77
2006AL Playoff Teams4.493.314.194.474.816.03
AL Average4.663.554.184.635.086.31
2007AL Playoff Teams4.183.223.804.124.505.67
AL Average4.473.474.014.454.886.02
Last 5AL Playoff Teams4.293.313.964.284.615.63
AL Average4.643.604.214.645.056.13

Only in one spot in on year did the league out-perform the playoff teams. In 2006, the league average #2 starter had an FIP of 4.18 compared to the playoff teams' 4.19. Otherwise the playoff squads handily outpaced the rest of the league. The average playoff team's starter FIP was between 92.6% that of the league's. Note, however, that a league average starter (by FIP) still makes a good #4 pitcher for a playoff team based on the last five seasons.

ERA: AL Playoff Teams vs. AL Average, 2003-2007

YearTeamERA#1#2#3#4#5
2003AL Playoff Teams4.152.663.664.304.616.04
AL Average4.663.184.054.565.376.97
2004AL Playoff Teams4.473.224.034.584.996.27
AL Average4.833.574.354.845.226.93
2005AL Playoff Teams4.153.213.594.004.526.17
AL Average4.523.213.854.405.076.73
2006AL Playoff Teams4.383.163.804.194.816.58
AL Average4.733.364.174.625.107.06
2007AL Playoff Teams4.293.073.704.264.736.27
AL Average4.613.293.884.425.237.00
Last 5AL Playoff Teams4.293.023.774.264.746.29
AL Average4.673.324.064.565.206.93

Again the playoff teams sink to league average in only one spot: #1 pitchers on playoff teams in 2005 were league average. Of course, when the rest of your rotation outpitches everyone else, you can afford that. The average playoff team ERA was 91.8% that of the league, or about the same as the difference in FIP. Not surprisingly, then, a league average pitcher slots in at #4 on a playoff team using ERA again.

So now that it turns out a league average starter is generally a good #4 starter on a playoff team in the American League, let's turn to the senior circuit. Pitching in the NL is considered to have a positive effect on a pitcher's statistics since opposing pitchers bat for themselves and the NL FIP has been below that of the AL in four of the past five seasons (2007 is the exception). Similarly, the NL ERA was higher than the AL ERA only in 2007. Perhaps, then, this skews the importance of league average starters to NL playoff teams.

FIP: NL Playoff Teams vs. NL Average, 2003-2007

YearTeamFIP#1#2#3#4#5
2003NL Playoff Teams4.133.083.824.144.555.42
NL Average4.553.424.134.524.956.15
2004NL Playoff Teams4.503.384.084.474.926.17
NL Average4.613.374.144.635.096.47
2005NL Playoff Teams4.203.113.684.364.725.48
NL Average4.453.354.054.434.955.85
2006NL Playoff Teams4.653.564.164.725.125.97
NL Average4.663.624.214.635.076.25
2007NL Playoff Teams4.663.644.344.705.015.90
NL Average4.603.484.174.665.046.04
Last 5NL Playoff Teams4.423.284.034.464.895.83
NL Average4.573.454.144.575.026.15


The past two seasons have been interesting in the National League. The general mediocrity of the starting staffs of the Cardinals and Mets in 2006 contributed the most to the #3 and #4 spots on playoff teams doing worse than league average (the Cardinals #3 starters had a 5.31 FIP!). Of course, each of those teams had better than average results from their fifth starters which no doubt helped them win enough games to get into the playoffs.

Last season is a different story. The Rockies (4.67) and Phillies (4.86) both had below average starting staffs overall. The Diamondbacks (4.58) and Cubs (4.54) were above average, but not by much. Cumulatively, this means the average playoff rotation was worse than league average overall. Only in the fourth and fifth starter spots did the playoff teams manage to outperform the league. There might be a moral in there (depth! depth! depth!). In any event, the National League in the past two seasons has shown that if you can run a half-decent staff out there and mash the ball, you've got a real shot.

The average NL playoff team rotation over the past five years put up an FIP that was 96.8% that of the league. Again, a league average starter slots in as a #4 overall, but in the past two seasons, playoff teams could use such a pitcher as a #3 guy. Maybe ERA will clear up the picture: perhaps these FIP-challenged teams were ERA-lucky.

ERA: NL Playoff Teams vs. NL Average, 2003-2007

YearTeamERA#1#2#3#4#5
2003NL Playoff Teams3.902.753.453.904.245.66
NL Average4.402.973.814.244.927.04
2004NL Playoff Teams4.123.033.614.044.356.76
NL Average4.433.003.754.224.877.55
2005NL Playoff Teams3.792.423.093.784.455.66
NL Average4.232.813.704.234.706.23
2006NL Playoff Teams4.463.313.744.214.906.17
NL Average4.653.254.004.575.127.07
2007NL Playoff Teams4.473.434.004.304.786.51
NL Average4.643.293.974.505.127.03
Last 5NL Playoff Teams4.142.863.634.074.546.29
NL Average4.473.073.854.354.956.98

ERA makes recent playoff teams look a little better. Only the #1 and #2 (barely) starters last season were substandard, while only 2006 aces were below average. As long as most of your rotation outperforms their equivalents around the league, you can deal with a slightly below average top dog. The #1 pitchers in 2004 didn't get lucky in this table either, still finishing a little below the league average.

The playoff team ERA is 92.7% that of the league average over the past five seasons. That's close to the American League's numbers for FIP and ERA. League average starters are, yet again, good #4 starters on playoff teams.

I can see some people complaining that numbers like FIP and ERA don't get you into the playoffs: it's wins that count! With that in mind, I averaged the wins by each starting staff in each league in each season. In the American League, playoff teams could expect about 70 wins from their rotation each year. In the National League, that number drops to 65 wins. Either way, I think the moral of the story is it takes good defense combined with great offense to overcome a league average pitching staff and make the playoffs, but it's certainly possible.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Arms, Arms For the Poor?

Quick fact of the day: the 1915 Philadelphia Athletics used a staggering (and record-setting) twenty-four different starting pitchers in a 154-game season. Unsurprisingly, the team stank (43-109!). Of course, this was the first season after Connie Mack sold off most of the good players on his contending squads, blaming rising salaries; the next season the team would go 36-117, good for a .235 winning percentage. Not many middle infielders from that era can say they had a higher batting average than their team's winning percentage, but the A's had two: 41-year-old Nap Lajoie at second (.246) and Whitey Witt at short (.245). Anyway, enough prattling about the horrific 1916 squad: back to the 1915 pitchers.

The Shuffling Twenty-Four
(1915 AL ERA: 2.93 - stats reflect player's time on the Athletics' roster.)

  • Weldon Wyckoff (43 G, 34 GS, 10-22, 3.52 ERA)
  • Rube Bressler* (32 G, 20 GS, 4-17, 5.20 ERA)
    • Later went on to be a pretty good left fielder for the Reds in the 1920's.
  • Joe Bush (25 G, 18 GS, 5-15, 4.14 ERA)
  • Tom Knowlson (18 G, 9 GS, 4-6, 3.49 ERA)
    • 20 years old in his only MLB season.
  • Bud Davis (18 G, 2 GS, 0-2, 4.05 ERA)
    • 19 years old in his only season.
  • Bob Shawkey (17 G, 13 GS, 6-6, 4.05 ERA)
    • Traded to the Yankees for $3,500 during the season, he went on to pitch well in pinstripes, finishing with a 196-150 career record.
  • Tom Sheehan (15 G, 13 GS, 4-9, 4.15 ERA)
  • Herb Pennock* (11 G, 8 GS, 3-6, 5.32 ERA)
    • Selected off waivers by the Red Sox, Pennock now is enshrined in an obscure museum in a nondescript New York town.
  • Jack Nabors (10 G, 7 GS, 0-5, 5.50 ERA)
    • Old man of the staff at 27, Nabors would be given more of a chance in 1916, going 1-20 with a 3.47 ERA. His Baseball-Reference.com sponsor says it all: "There are bad pitchers, and there are unlucky pitchers, and then there are men who were neither: they were just cursed to pitch on horrendous Philadelphia teams, the poor souls."
  • Cap Crowell (10 G, 8 GS, 2-6, 5.47 ERA)
  • Dana Fillingim (8 G, 4 GS, 0-5, 3.43 ERA)
  • Bruno Haas* (6 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.93 ERA)
    • Boon Haas never made it back to the majors.
  • Harry Eccles* (5 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 4.71 ERA)
    • Five career games was enough for him to be saddled with the nickname "Bugs."
  • Bill Morrisette (4 G, 1 GS, 2-0, 1.35 ERA)
    • Morrisette had the most wins with no losses on the team.
  • Walter Ancker (4 G, 1 GS, 0-0, 3.57 ERA)
    • Out of baseball at the age of 22 after the season.
  • Chick Davies* (4 G, 2 GS, 1-2, 8.80 ERA)
    • Things got so bad reserve outfielder Davies had to start some games. Oddly, he appeared again in the big leagues with the Giants as a reliever ten years later.
  • Jack Richardson (3 G, 3 GS, 0-1, 2.63 ERA)
  • Harry Weaver (2 G, 2 GS, 0-2, 3.00 ERA)
  • Joe Sherman (2 G, 1 GS, 1-0, 2.40 ERA)
    • Though the 24-year-old Sherman was done in the majors after the season, he lived until the age of 97.
  • Carl Ray* (2 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 4.91 ERA)
  • Tink Turner (1 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 22.50 ERA)
    • ...and thus he faded into baseball obscurity.
  • Elmer Myers (1 G, 1 GS, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
    • What a game! He had 12 strikeouts to go with his five walks and two hits allowed.
  • Bill Meehan (1 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 11.25 ERA)
    • Like Turner, he was done after the game.
  • Bob Cone (1 G, 1 GS, 0-0, 40.50 ERA)
    • Cone didn't even last an inning in his only career game, but at least his teammates came back to give him a no-decision.
There were only three pitchers on the staff who didn't start any games (not really a surprise given the time period, but still).
  • Jack Harper - appeared in three games during April, finished two, and never pitched in the bigs again. He was 21.
  • Squiz Pullion* - the curiously nicknamed Cecil Pullion pitched in two games within a week during August before his career was over.
  • Bob Pepper - five innings of effectively wild (4 BB and 1 HBP) one-run relief on July 23 gave him a career 1.80 ERA.
The staff totals: 154 GS (two ties/rainouts/suspended games?), 43-109, 4.23 ERA (last in the league). They tied the sixth-place Browns for fewest shutouts with 6 and managed to walk 2.3 more batters per game than the rest of the league (5.4 to 3.1). The team's ERA+ (ratio of the league to the team) was a sad 68. For some sort of perspective, Jason Jennings (6.45 ERA in the NL) and Robinson Tejeda (6.61 ERA in the AL) had a 68 ERA+ in 2007. The 1915 A's pitching staff was truly a sad-sack staff.

The 1916 squad used fewer starters despite their worse record - only fourteen different pitchers took the mound to start the game for the team. Of those, six weren't on the team the previous year, so over two seasons, the Athletics used thirty different starting pitchers. Crazy days in Philly, I guess.

* - left-handed

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

NL Rotations by ERA for 2007

EDIT: Upon further review, I don't like the way I originally came about these numbers. For some reason, I had simply averaged each team's FIP in each spot for the league numbers. A smarter way to do it would be to treat the entire league as one giant rotation and determine the top 20% of starts (generally around 518 for the NL and 454 for the AL) for spot #1, etc. It makes no sense to penalize the league average rotation because the top 15 pitchers are clustered on, say, 8 teams. This tends to lower the value for #1 starters and raise the value for #5 starters while leaving the middle guys generally unchanged. I've changed the numbers in the tables to reflect the new method. The "average" rotations at the end are the same as before. Sorry for the mistake.

A few days ago I had a post detailing rotations and average starters in the National League using FIP. Today I want to change gears, take off the beginner-sabermetrician's hat, and return to the commonly cited ERA. I admit, when I hear the phrase, "he's a #4 starter," I quantify that in terms of ERA and I would guess most of you do, too. ERA was the statistic used in the article that started me thinking about this "analysis" and it's common enough that I figured it would be worth a look today. I think the most interesting thing to take away from this exercise is the difference between perception of back of the rotation starters and their actual numbers.

As I did for the FIP table, each rotation spot is figured out the same way for each team (33 starts for #1, then 33, 32, 32, 32). Obviously I use ERA instead of FIP so for the Brewers, the #1 spot calculation looks like:
(6*2.06+17*3.74+10*3.82)/33 = 3.46 -- Carlos Villanueva, Yovani Gallardo, and 10 of Sheets' starts combine for the #1 slot.
The columns are similar to my last post: SERA is the cumulative starter ERA for the team and STDEV is the standard deviation of the starting rotation spots. Who would have thought, going into the year, the two NL teams with the most "even" rotations would be Chicago and Milwaukee? Ah, but enough of the preview, take a look at the table:

TeamSERA#1#2#3#4#5STDEV
San Diego Padres4.112.543.154.124.627.161.78
Chicago Cubs4.193.803.913.954.135.490.70
Arizona Diamondbacks4.233.014.084.304.726.481.27
San Francisco Giants4.243.383.864.094.475.700.88
New York Mets4.403.473.724.054.486.981.42
Los Angeles Dodgers4.433.033.584.245.356.631.44
Atlanta Braves4.453.113.324.185.527.231.72
Milwaukee Brewers4.553.464.244.815.165.200.73
Colorado Rockies4.583.804.214.334.876.060.87
Houston Astros4.713.214.444.755.266.291.13
Cincinnati Reds4.863.734.214.585.298.081.72
Philadelphia Phillies4.913.354.225.085.806.611.28
Pittsburgh Pirates5.023.763.955.115.857.411.50
St. Louis Cardinals5.043.574.114.865.697.531.55
Washington Nationals5.113.564.464.685.777.821.63
Florida Marlins5.584.645.135.215.817.671.18
NL4.643.293.97
4.505.127.031.43

A #4 starter in the NL this past season would have been above-average if he'd put up a 5.00 ERA. Similarly, a team would have to count its lucky stars if their #5 starter did the same. I mentioned it last time, but this table really points out how hapless Florida's starters were: only 37 starts all year were made by a pitcher ending up with an ERA (as a starter) of 5.00 or under.

As in the FIP post, here are the pitchers who threw ace-level or better in 20 or more starts (~3.46 ERA):
  • Jake Peavy, 34 starts, 2.54 ERA
  • Brandon Webb, 34, 3.01
  • Brad Penny, 33, 3.03
  • John Smoltz, 32, 3.11
  • Chris Young, 30, 3.12
  • Roy Oswalt, 32, 3.19
  • Tim Hudson, 34, 3.33
  • Chad Billingsley, 20, 3.38
  • Cole Hamels, 28, 3.39
  • Moving on to the #2 starters (~4.04 ERA):
    • Noah Lowry, 26 starts, 3.92 ERA
    • Carlos Zambrano, 34, 3.95
    • Tim Lincecum, 24, 4.00
    • Aaron Cook, 25, 4.12
    FIP liked Lincecum, placing him among the aces, but he slides to #2 status here. You can't be too disappointed for the rookie, though.

    Continuing the journey to #3 starters (~4.52 ERA):
    • Jason Marquis, 33 starts, 4.43 ERA
    • Tom Glavine, 34, 4.45
    • Jay Bergmann, 21, 4.45
    • Barry Zito, 33, 4.55
    • Justin Germano, 23, 4.56
    • Wandy Rodriguez, 31, 4.58
    It's far too easy, but I'm guessing this is not what the Giants signed Barry Zito for.

    Now we're into the hinterlands: #4 starters (~5.17 ERA):
    • Woody Williams, 31 starts, 5.06 ERA
    • Jamie Moyer, 32, 5.15
    • Dontrelle Willis, 35, 5.17
    • Chris Capuano, 25, 5.20
    • Dave Bush, 31, 5.20
    Not good news for Brewers fans here. At least you can say Moyer and Williams were showing their age, but it's never good when twenty-something starters struggle so much.

    The final stop on the ERA track, those disturbingly bad #5 starters (~6.77 ERA). I've got to go down to 15+ starts for this, as most teams won't put up with such mediocrity for long.
    • Kip Wells, 26 starts, 6.27 ERA
    • Adam Eaton, 30, 6.29
    • Tony Armas, 15, 6.40
    • Jason Jennings, 18, 6.43
    • Rick Vanden Hurk, 17, 6.81
    Those are some unpleasant numbers. His poor season didn't stop Vanden Hurk from being a celebrity guest at the clinching game of the Dutch Championship Series.

    To recap, the average NL starting rotation would be akin to this list:
    1. Cole Hamels
    2. Tim Lincecum
    3. Barry Zito
    4. Dontrelle Willis
    5. Rick Vanden Hurk
    Fold the Marlins into the Giants and you're 80% there!