Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Three True Outcomes per Plate Appearance, 1913-2008

An update to my Three True Outcomes (TTO) post of January 2008. As mentioned there, batting strikeouts weren't consistently recorded until 1913, so I start counting TTO from there.

Most Career TTO/PA, 1913-2007, min. 3000 PA

RankNamePASOBBHRTTO/PA
1
Adam Dunn
4749
1256
797
278
.4908
2
Rob Deer45121409575230.4907
3Jim Thome90292190
1550
541
.4741
4Mark McGwire766015961317583.4564
5
Carlos Pena
3143
810
408
163
.4394
6
Mickey Tettleton57451307949245.4353
7
Pat Burrell5388
1273785
251
.4285
8
Jay Buhner59271406792310.4231
9Gorman Thomas54861339697268.4200
10
Brad Wilkerson
3753
947
492
122
.4159
11Danny Tartabull58421362768262.4094
12Don Lock3116776373122.4079
13Jose Canseco81291942906462.4072
14
Troy Glaus
5840
1269
788
304
.4043
15Mickey Mantle990917101733536.4016
16Reggie Jackson1141625971375563.3972
17Darryl Strawberry63261352816335.3957
18Gene Tenace5525998984201.3951
19Pete Incaviglia46771277360206.3941
20
Richie Sexson
5604
1313
588
306
.3938
21
Eric Davis61471398740282.3937
22
Jason Bay
3259
734
397
149
.3928
23Jim Edmonds73071669974382
.3924
24
Cecil Fielder
5939
1316
693
319
.3920
25
Ray Lankford
6674
1550
828
238
.3920

Adam Dunn finally edged Rob Deer out of the top spot.

I expanded the board to the top 25 for this post. Carlos Pena joined the top 20 this year, as did Richie Sexson. Eric Davis and Jim Edmonds fell out of the top 25, but stay in the top 25 with a new addition between them. Reggie Jackson remains the only member of the club with 10000 PA, though Jim Thome is getting close. Mike Schmidt narrowly missed joining him with his .3914 TTO/PA in 10062 PA.

In case you were wondering, the lowest career TTO% table didn't change. Here is a simple list of the bottom ten active players, minimum 3000 PA:
  • Juan Pierre, .1128
  • Placido Polanco, .1316
  • Cesar Izturis, .1424
  • David Eckstein, .1462
  • Paul Lo Duca, .1490
  • Bengie Molina, .1561
  • Ichiro Suzuki, .1651
  • Jason Kendall, .1684
  • Orlando Cabrera, .1687
  • Miguel Cairo, .1690

Sunday, June 14, 2009

First Career Home Runs

Mark Buehrle hit his first career home run today. Later in the same game, he gave up Casey McGehee's first major league home run. I tried looking it up and I believe it's the first time since August 23, 2004 that a pitcher hit his first career home run and gave up another player's first career home run in the same game. That 2004 game featured John Van Benschoten hitting a homer and giving one up to Chris Snyder.

Fewest IP Per Win & Most IP Without a Win

In the low minor leagues, teams have begun intensely limiting pitcher workloads. For a lot of young starting pitchers, this can make it tough to last the five innings necessary for a win. A necessary result is an increased number of wins going to relievers. Some of the more obvious examples: Dan Meadows of the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers has 10 wins in 47 1/3 innings. Eddie Gamboa of the Delmarva Shorebirds has six wins in 33 1/3 innings. Joey Williamson has seven wins in 41 1/3 innings.

The majors are obviously a different story as starting pitchers who don't last five innings are quickly washed out of the rotation. Those pitchers certainly have difficulty racking up wins as well. However, some pitchers in the majors actually have picked up wins while throwing relatively few innings.

Fewest Innings Pitched Per Win in a Season
(minimum 5 wins)

NameYearRecordIPIP/W
Roy Face19655-220 1/34.1
Scott Eyre20085-025 2/35.1
Roy Face195918-193 1/35.2
Gene Stechschulte20026-2325.3
Yhency Brazoban20046-232 2/35.4
John Franco19926-2335.5
Johnny Murphy194312-4685.7
Bill Risley19949-652 1/35.8
Arthur Rhodes19969-1535.9
Tom Gordon20085-429 2/35.9

Roy Face's career is pretty impressive. Despite standing only 5'8", he was the Pirates' closer before closers and saves were invented, Face appeared in 57 games, finishing 47 of them. Retroactively assigning saves through his career gives him a total of 193, good for second all-time when his career finished. Obviously in 1959 and 1965, he benefited from timely offense behind him.

Of course, for every pitcher like those above, there has been one that couldn't buy a win.

Most Innings Pitched in a Season Without a Win
  • Terry Felton, 1982 Twins, 117 1/3
  • Stump Weidman, 1880 Buffalo, 113 2/3
  • Diego Segui, 1977 Mariners, 110 2/3
  • Russ Miller, 1928 Phillies, 108
  • Steve Sparks, 2003 Tigers/Athletics, 107
  • Bob Moorhead, 1962 Mets, 105 1/3
  • Bob Shirley, 1986 Yankees, 105 1/3
  • Steve Gerkin, 1945 Athletics, 102
  • John Malarkey, 1895 Washington, 100 2/3
  • Wes Stock, 1965 Athletics, 99 2/3
Moorhead had the fewest decisions of all those pitchers, going 0-2 with a 4.53 ERA, mostly in relief. Shirley and Stock were both 0-4.

Musing

A couple days ago I was reading baseball news and came across this AP story about the Twins activating Nick Punto on Yahoo. The part that caught my eye:

The switch-hitter has been a valuable utility player for the Twins since 2005.

I saw that and chuckled about his abysmal hitting in 2007 and so far this year (until missing time he had the lowest SLG among qualifiers by about 40 points). Taking a further look, though, I wonder if he just has a serious aversion to odd-numbered years. Punto's batting lines each season since 2005:

2005: 439 PA, .239/.301/.335, 68 OPS+
2006: 524 PA, .290/.352/.373, 90 OPS+
2007: 536 PA, .210/.291/.271, 52 OPS+
2008: 377 PA, .284/.344/.382, 99 OPS+
2009: 157 PA, .202/.303/.225, 47 OPS+

Strange.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

2009 Team Unearned Runs

On Friday I cross-posted something I wrote for Brew Crew Ball regarding earned and unearned runs in an inning with errors and pitching changes. One of the topics that came up was team unearned runs.

The concept of team unearned runs comes from Official Rule 10.16(i).
When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not have the benefit of previous chances for outs not accepted in determining earned runs.
You can read my Friday post for an example of this rule being applied. Team unearned runs come into play if a reliever allows earned (to him) runs to score after the team should have been out of the inning. They're relatively rare, since errors, pitching changes, and ineffective relief pitching all have to present for one to result.

Team unearned runs can have an effect on baseball statistics, though. Since they are charged as earned runs to relief pitchers but unearned runs to the team, summing up earned runs allowed by a team's pitchers can make a team's ERA look higher than it should. Baseball-Reference.com calculates team ER and team ERA by summing the earned runs allowed of the team's pitchers, so that's at least one often-used site that can be off. As noted Friday, Cleveland is one example of this. Unfortunately, there are ten other teams in the same boat through June 6.
  • Arizona Diamondbacks
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 252/4.48 - Correct ER/ERA: 250/4.45

    May 25 - 8th inning - Jon Rauch charged with two earned runs (both team unearned)

  • Baltimore Orioles
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 293/5.37 - Correct ER/ERA: 290/5.32

    April 15 - 4th inning - Radhames Liz charged with three earned runs (all team unearned)

  • Chicago Cubs
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 211/4.05 - Correct ER/ERA: 210/4.04

    June 2 - 8th inning - Carlos Marmol charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Cleveland Indians
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 298/5.27 - Correct ER/ERA: 297/5.25

    May 12 - 7th inning - Tony Sipp charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Colorado Rockies
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 252/4.71 - Correct ER/ERA: 250/4.67

    April 18 - 7th inning - Ryan Speier charged with one earned run (team unearned)
    May 17 - 7th inning - Manuel Corpas charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Detroit Tigers
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 217/4.09 - Correct ER/ERA: 209/3.94

    April 7 - 8th inning - Brandon Lyon charged with three earned runs (two team unearned)
    April 28 - 7th inning - Nate Robertson charged with four earned runs (all team unearned); Brandon Lyon charged with two earned runs (both team unearned)

  • Florida Marlins
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 259/4.51 - Correct ER/ERA: 257/4.47

    May 19 - 7th inning - Renyel Pinto charged with one earned run (team unearned)
    June 3 - 5th inning - Hayden Penn charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Milwaukee Brewers
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 223/4.07 - Correct ER/ERA: 222/4.05

    May 18 - 7th inning - Mark DiFelice charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Oakland Athletics
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 235/4.30 - Correct ER/ERA: 234/4.28

    April 28 - 6th inning - Andrew Bailey charged with one earned run (team unearned)

    This is further notable because of an error in the Baseball-Reference box score/play-by-play. Bailey entered the game due to injury with a 2-0 count on Michael Young. The box score/play-by-play lists Young's walk (and later run) as belonging to Bailey when in fact it should belong to Anderson per Official Rule 10.16(h). Curiously, the walk and run do not count against his total on his player page but they are still there in his game log.

  • San Diego Padres
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 245/4.49 - Correct ER/ERA: 244/4.47

    April 29 - 6th inning - Arturo Lopez charged with one earned run (team unearned)

  • Tampa Bay Rays
    Baseball-Reference ER/ERA: 251/4.49 - Correct ER/ERA: 247/4.42

    May 25 - 9th inning - Grant Balfour charged with two unearned runs (both team unearned); Jason Isringhausen charged with two unearned runs (both team unearned)
Obviously the difference will mean less as the season goes on. Where one team unearned run might cause a difference of 0.02 in a team's ERA now, it might not cause an apparent difference in a team's ERA at the end of the season. However, that's no reason to ignore the fact there is a difference. Who knows, maybe those eight team unearned runs will be the difference between Detroit finishing first, second, or third in the team ERA standings.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Elias Gets Snippy

I like reading the Elias Says column on ESPN.com. It's got all sorts of odd trivia put together by Elias Sports Bureau, Inc. Today, however, there was one entry that sounded downright angry:

WE DON'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT THE "LAST 300-GAME WINNER"
Do you think when Grover Alexander got to 300 wins in 1924 the pundits were saying that there will never be another 300-game winner? Or that they were saying the same thing when Early Wynn won his 300th in 1963? Eleven of the 24 men to win 300 games reached the milestone before 1925, and 10 others have done so since 1982. Only three pitchers reached 300 wins between 1925 and 1981: Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn and Wynn.

While pitchers are starting fewer games than in years past, they're not recording a lower percentage of wins. This season, starting pitchers have recorded 68 percent of the wins in the majors; the percentage of wins by starters has hovered between 68 percent and 74 percent each season in the last 30 years (since 1979).

So who's next? Here are the active career wins leaders among pitchers under 40, under 35, under 30 and under 25:

Under 40: Andy Pettitte (220), Bartolo Colon (153), Livan Hernandez (151).
Under 35: Livan Hernandez (151), Tim Hudson (146), Kevin Millwood (146).
Under 30: CC Sabathia (122), Jon Garland (110), Carlos Zambrano (99).
Under 25: Felix Hernandez (44), Chad Billingsley (42), Matt Cain (37).

--------

I remember when Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux were going to be the last 300-game winners. Then I remember hearing all about how Tom Glavine would be the last one. Now Randy Johnson will supposedly be the last one. And that's just this decade.

I like the irony of Johnson being named the last 300-game winner less than a week before the most hyped pitching prospect in years is due to be drafted #1 overall.

Personally, I hope Jon Garland gets there. Not because I actually think he'll get there, but because Garland doesn't seem like the type of guy who fits into the 300 club. I mean, a nondescript guy who reaches 300 just by pitching forever? I'm down with that. Come to think of it, I hope Jamie Moyer turns this year around and lasts long enough to get to 300 for the same reason.

Figuring Earned and Unearned Runs in a Crazy Inning

I'm cross-posting this from Brew Crew Ball because I think it's a useful guide to determining earned and unearned runs in an inning involving errors, fielder's choices, and pitching changes. Since I wrote it for a Brewers blog, you'll have to excuse the pro-Brewers tilt. The earned run totals in the final paragraph are outdated, but the larger point holds true. I also have to thank my dad, who has covered 1800+ games for STATS, LLC, for checking my work.

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The fifth inning of last night's game officially took 51 minutes. The Brewers' half included eleven batters and two pitching changes and lasted 25 minutes. The Marlins' half had only one pitching change and ten batters but lasted 26 minutes. Since there were errors, pitching changes, and runs galore in the Brewers' half, it's worth talking about.

One of the most confusing parts of scoring a baseball game is determining whether or not runs are earned. Just as confusing is determining which pitcher in a multiple-pitcher inning is responsible for each run. Since the top half of the fifth inning contained just about every possible weird situation relating to earned/unearned runs, let's work through it and figure out how the runs were assigned.

First, two basic rules: if a batter reaches base because of an error or stays on the bases because of an error and then scores a run, that run is unearned. Also, if runs score after error-free play would have resulted in three outs, those runs are unearned.

Now, the full play-by-play of the inning:

Brewers fifth.
West pitching.
McGehee grounded out, third baseman E.Bonifacio to first baseman Cantu.
R.Braun safe at first on fielding error by shortstop H.Ramirez.
Fielder singled to center, R.Braun to second.
Penn pitching.
M.Cameron walked, R.Braun to third, Fielder to second.
Hardy grounded into fielder's choice, third baseman E.Bonifacio to catcher J.Baker, Fielder to third, M.Cameron to second, Hardy to first, R.Braun out.
B.Hall walked, Fielder scored, M.Cameron to third, Hardy to second.
Kendall walked on a full count, M.Cameron scored, Hardy to third, B.Hall to second.
Looper walked, Hardy scored, B.Hall to third, Kendall to second.
Sanches pitching.
C.Hart safe at first on throwing error by third baseman E.Bonifacio, B.Hall scored, Kendall to third, Looper to second.
McGehee doubled to left, Kendall scored, Looper scored, C.Hart to third.
R.Braun struck out.

Whew, that's a screenful. Sean West entered the inning having given up three runs already in the game, all earned. His role in this inning is the easy one to analyze:

Brewers fifth.
West pitching.
McGehee grounded out, third baseman E.Bonifacio to first baseman Cantu.
R.Braun safe at first on fielding error by shortstop H.Ramirez.
Fielder singled to center, R.Braun to second.
Penn pitching.

McGehee's groundout is self-explanatory. Braun's at bat is trickier: he should have been the second out of the inning, but he reached base. Remember this for later. Fielder's single is also a simple ending for West's night. He departed the game having allowed two runners to reach base.

Now, when Penn entered the game, there should have been two outs. However, Rule 10.16(i) says

When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not have the benefit of previous chances for outs not accepted in determining earned runs.

So even if there should have been two outs, Penn does not get the benefit of the error for determining his earned and unearned runs. It's probably easiest to examine his outing play by play.

  • M.Cameron walked, R.Braun to third, Fielder to second.

    Braun and Fielder remain West's responsibility.
  • Hardy grounded into fielder's choice, third baseman E.Bonifacio to catcher J.Baker, Fielder to third, M.Cameron to second, Hardy to first, R.Braun out.

    This is a confusing play, especially if you see West was charged with two runs in the inning. Since he was responsible for only two batters and Braun was out at the plate, shouldn't he only be responsible for Fielder from this point forward? The answer is no. It's easiest to think of this situation as if Penn came in with no one on base. In that case, Hardy would have come up with Cameron on first. His fielder's choice would then have wiped out Cameron. It's not Penn's fault Braun was on third base to be put out on the fielder's choice. Ergo, Cameron takes Braun's place as West's responsibility.

  • B.Hall walked, Fielder scored, M.Cameron to third, Hardy to second.

    The first of West's runners scores. It's tricky here, too, because of the two perspectives on how many outs there should be. From West's perspective, Hardy's fielder's choice should have ended the inning. Thus the run Fielder scores against him is unearned. From Penn's perspective, Hardy's FC was only the second out of the inning, so he's still on the hook for future earned runs.
  • Kendall walked on a full count, M.Cameron scored, Hardy to third, B.Hall to second.

    Since Cameron took over Braun's role as West's responsibility, this is the second of West's two runs to score. Again, the inning should be over from his perspective, so this run against him is unearned.
  • Looper walked, Hardy scored, B.Hall to third, Kendall to second.

    Hardy is the first of Penn's runners to come around and score. Since from his perspective there should only be two outs, this run is earned against him.

Penn was finally pulled after going to a 2-1 count on Corey Hart. If Hart had proceeded to walk, he would have counted against Penn (see Rule 10.16(h)). Mercifully, he didn't walk, keeping things a little simpler.

Brian Sanches entered the game with the bases loaded and all three runners Penn's responsibility. The same rule that applied to Penn applies to Sanches, namely that from his perspective there should only be two out. Let's break his outing down play by play as well.

  • Sanches pitching.
    C.Hart safe at first on throwing error by third baseman E.Bonifacio, B.Hall scored, Kendall to third, Looper to second.

    This error should have ended the inning from both Penn's point of view and Sanches' point of view. Thus Hall's run counts against Penn, but it is unearned. Hart is Sanches' responsibility.

  • McGehee doubled to left, Kendall scored, Looper scored, C.Hart to third.

    Both Kendall and Looper reached because of Penn, so their runs are charged to him. Since the inning should have ended after Hart's at bat, neither run is earned. Both runners are Sanches' now, so close the book on Penn.

  • R.Braun struck out.

    The inning finally ends.

The total damage? West is responsible for two runs, both unearned. Penn is responsible for four runs, only one of which is earned. Sanches gave up zero runs. In total, the team gave up six runs, only one of which is earned, right?

Wait! We're not finished yet. From the team's perspective, the inning should have ended with Hardy's fielder's choice, before any runs scored. So even though Penn got charged with an earned run in the inning, that run is marked down as something called a team unearned run. Marking it down as such avoids penalizing the team for putting in a relief pitcher. Remember how Penn entering the game "reset" the number of outs there should have been? If that was carried over to the team, it would effectively force the Marlins' pitching staff to record four would-be outs in the inning before runs became unearned. In short, team unearned runs undo for the team what Rule 10.16(i) does for a relief pitcher.

This can lead to some interesting "discrepancies" in team pitching totals. For example, examine Baseball-Reference's team pitching totals. Note that Cleveland has given up 284 earned runs this year. If you go to Cleveland's team page and sum up the earned runs for every pitcher, you get 284. Duh, right? Not quite. Take a journey over to MLB.com's team pitching totals. There you will note Cleveland as a team has given up 283 earned runs. The difference is one team unearned run on May 12. In that game Tony Sipp gave up an earned run, but it was a team unearned run. Since Baseball-Reference totals earned runs by summing up the earned runs of each pitcher, they end up off by one in this case, affecting the team's ERA. In this case MLB.com's total is correct and the Indians' team ERA is 0.02 lower than what Baseball-Reference shows. Baltimore is in the same situation.

Baseball's rules can be extremely complicated at times. I feel bad for anyone scoring the game last night.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Highest Combined Game Scores, Dual No-Decisions

I've talked about game scores a couple times in the past. For a refresher on how they're figured, click here to see a list of the lowest game scores in a pitching win. On Memorial Day, Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter squared off with dual eight-inning two-hitters. The Brewers wound up winning 1-0 in ten innings, leaving both starters with no-decisions for their efforts.

Carpenter wound up with a game score of 88 while Gallardo came in at 80. In the Brew Crew Ball game thread for the game, a question was asked about the highest combined game score for a game in which both starters wound up with no-decisions. I think it makes for an interesting list.

Highest Combined Game Scores, Dual No-Decisions
Since 1954
  1. 226 - October 2, 1965 - Chris Short (114) at Rob Gardner (112)
  2. 207 - September 24, 1971 - Ken Forsch (98) at Clay Kirby (109)
  3. 203 - June 6, 1964 - Jim Bouton (87) at Dean Chance (116)
  4. 203 - July 9, 1971 - Rudy May (103) at Vida Blue (100)
  5. 199 - September 30, 1964 - Bob Veale (97) at Jim Maloney (102)
  6. 193 - September 1, 1967 - Gaylord Perry (112) at Mel Queen (81)
  7. 193 - August 27, 1976 - Catfish Hunter (89) at Frank Tanana (104)
  8. 190 - May 1, 1974 - Tom Seaver (106) at Andy Messersmith (84)
  9. 189 - May 21, 1957 - Jim Bunning (92) at Ray Moore (97)
  10. 189 - July 27, 1966 - Jim Bunning (91) at Sandy Koufax (98)
  11. 189 - August 26, 1968 - Jim Perry (91) at Frank Bertaina (98)
Obviously this list is fueled by starting pitchers going deep into games before the advent of pitch counts. The highest combined score in the past 10 years was 180, achieved by Kevin Millwood (96) and Darren Oliver (84) on August 28, 1999. Here are the scores of other games since 1999 that saw a combined score of at least 168: 174, 173, 169, 168.